Thursday, October 26, 2023

Brussels Edition: Fiscal rules deal

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.The mood will be gloomy

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The mood will be gloomy when EU leaders meet today to discuss their economic priorities. As they review fiscal rules to better balance expenditure discipline and making space for billions of euros of investment needed for the greening of the economy or defense, progress is proving difficult. Meanwhile, the leaders have still not been able to convince Italy to greenlight bolstering the euro area's rescue fund. ECB president Christine Lagarde has warned of the risk of the EU's disunity in fueling market turbulence. So EU leaders will give a political push to seal a deal on the fiscal rules by the end of the year, according to the draft summit conclusions. That would come as the economic environment continues to deteriorate with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Jorge Valero

What's Happening

Stand Still | The ECB left interest rates unchanged for the first time in more than a year following last month's knife-edge decision to lift the deposit rate to a record 4%. ECB President Lagarde said that a discussion on rates cuts is "totally, totally premature." The rates decision gives Italy some much-needed breathing room.

Aid Corridors | EU leaders agreed to call for "humanitarian corridors and pauses" in the Israel-Hamas war to ensure aid reaches Gaza. After five hours of discussion, they also supported organizing a peace conference "soon." Several countries were keen to ensure that the joint statement should not jeopardize Israel's expected ground invasion or benefit Hamas, we're told. 

Sanctioned Money | Frozen Russian assets in Belgium have generated nearly €3 billion in profit by the third quarter, Belgium-based Euroclear said. Meanwhile, a proposal to apply a windfall tax on the profits continues to progress slowly as some member states remain skeptical about the legal basis and the risks to financial stability.

Dialing Back | Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti were told by fellow leaders of Germany, France and Italy to move toward normalization as the main path to join the bloc, we're told. Tensions have soared in the last month after a dramatic shootout in northern Kosovo between Serb militants and Kosovo police. 

Around Europe

Unlocking Cash | Poland could access blocked EU funds as soon as December, Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk said in Brussels yesterday. His government would be able to complete all the necessary steps "very quickly" once it takes office, he said. The Polish parliament will convene on Nov. 13 to start the handover process after three opposition parties jointly won a majority in this month's general election, including Tusk's Civic Platform.

Ukraine Recap | Traffic through Ukraine's new Black Sea shipping corridor was paused by local authorities to iron out tax and customs issues and root out corruption, according to a Ukrainian official. Meanwhile, the US is pulling an additional $150 million in military equipment from stockpiles to aid Ukraine. Separately, China is expected to skip a meeting in Malta this weekend where officials from more than 55 nations will discuss Ukraine and its so-called peace formula.

Wind Troubles | Siemens Energy is in talks with the German government about securing as much as €16 billion in guarantees after its former parent company indicated it was not willing to help, we're told. Problems at its wind-turbine unit risk spreading to the rest of the business, with shares of the company plummeting 40% yesterday. Part of the problem is a fault in thousands of wind turbines that's left the company with a repair bill of at least €1.6 billion. 

Brussels Shooting | Belgian prosecutors yesterday charged a Tunisian man with murder in relation to the Oct. 16 terrorist attack in the country that left two Swedish football fans dead. The attacker was killed by police the day after the incident. Another man was also charged with participating in the activities of a terrorist group. 

Chart of the Day

European natural gas traders are watching for Israel's next steps in its war against Hamas as the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies. The war has coincided with the start of the heating season, with Europe still in a vulnerable position as it looks for new sources after Russia cut off most pipeline flows last year. "EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks, highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk," Capital Economics said in a note.

Today's Agenda

  • EU leaders meet in Brussels
  • Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson meets Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of Naftogaz
  • ECB surveys of professional forecasters

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