| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an end-of-summer picnic of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. I'm a keen scholar of the law of unintended consequences and my top picks today are all examples — each in its own way. The first actually showcases two examples. Who would have thought that drugs designed to fight diabetes would be embraced as weight-loss solutions? And who would have thought this would have any bearing on the sales of alcohol? The alcohol industry seems to have overcome the threat posed by legalized marijuana but is facing an unexpected challenge from a whole other category of drugs: Weight-loss pills like Ozempic and Mounjaro. Originally created for diabetic treatments, the so-called GLP-1 prescriptions curb cravings for food, which effectively makes them slimming pills. But for some, these drugs also seem to dampen the rewards of addictive substances, whether that's nicotine, opioids or alcohol. This, as Lisa Jarvis and Leticia Miranda point out, bodes ills for booze makers. Wall Street analysts are warning the alcohol industry to brace for impact. Studies conducted by Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise research unit found that people taking these weight loss drugs consumed 62% less alcohol; more than one in five of them said they had stopped drinking booze altogether. This is no passing fad. The number of Americans taking obesity drugs is projected to grow nearly fivefold over the next 10 years to 24 million people — roughly the population of Texas. This represents a bonanza for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly & Co., but you can see why the following chart might give booze makers the shudders:
Morgan Stanley expects an overall 1.8% reduction in alcohol consumption from weight loss drugs. Since the US alcohol industry is estimated at $197 billion, we're talking about a $3.5 billion loss in sales. Booze makers should prepare for this unwanted reduction by introducing more products for weight-conscious consumers, such as nonalcoholic or low-calorie drinks, say Lisa and Leticia. They may also have to double down on premium products to try and prevent a slimming of their bottom lines. Despite a growing chorus of players and politicians calling for his resignation for forcibly kissing star forward Jenni Hermoso on the lips after the Women's World Cup final, Luis Rubiales is clinging on to his job as president of Spain's soccer federation. But a new voice joining the clamor might bring this sorry saga to an end: Corporate sponsors. Matthew Brooker says that the scandal represents a problem for the sponsors that have "invested millions of euros to associate their brands" with the national team and expected to bask in the success of La Roja, as the squad is known. Some are beginning to make their dissatisfaction with Rubiales' behavior known. The Spanish airline Iberia has said it supports "appropriate and pertinent measures" to preserve the rights and dignity of athletes. National rail operator Renfe said it supports measures by Spain's Sports Council, which is seeking Rubiales's removal. Iberdrola SA, the energy group, said any attitude that goes against the defense of equal rights and the dignity of women "has no place in the world of sport or in society." Much will depend on the position taken by the German sportswear maker Adidas, which has sponsored Spain's national team since 1991. The company makes much of its commitment to gender equality, but it has been slow to react on similar occasions in the past. If it joins the chorus, Rubiales' days may be numbered. "Europeans were keeping their cars far longer than in the past," notes Javier Blas. This is "damping the impact of newer, more fuel-efficient models and EVs" on overall gasoline consumption. In fact, despite an increase in EV sales, gasoline consumption in the European Union has hovered at a 10-year high this summer. The Maui wildfire disaster must be investigated to prevent it from happening again. — Bloomberg's editorial board US Jobs report: The labor market is looking normal again. — Karl W. Smith Government leaders must protect mobile and manufactured homes in the age of climate change. — Jonathan Levin The US housing market needs the economy to slow down. — Conor Sen A killer drone initiative shows the US military is getting smaller, cheaper and smarter. — James Stavridis If Tim Scott wants to be America's first single president in 139 years, that's nobody else's business. — Kara Alaimo Big Tech is luring away talent from the oil and gas industry. Tech investors are betting that AI will transform health care. US hiring picked up in August, even as wage growth slowed. Morgan Stanley says European Central Bank rate hikes are over. Carlos Alcaraz is on course to join an elite club of super-rich athletes. A deep discount makes Tesla's Model X eligible for a government subsidy that Elon Musk hates. Preventing rats from procreating is harder than New York expected … And getting people to procreate more is harder than South Korea expected.
Notes: Please send leftover ribs and pie to Bobby Ghosh at aghosh73@bloomberg.net.
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