Friday, September 29, 2023

Next Africa: Climate divide

The leaders of Kenya and South Africa have conflicting climate strategies

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

When it comes to climate, a sharp divide is emerging between two of Africa's most important leaders.

Kenyan President William Ruto is preaching self-reliance and investment, while South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa is extending the begging bowl and chastising the rich world. 

Ruto told the United Nations General Assembly that "we as Africa have come to the world, not to ask for alms, charity or handouts," reinforcing the investment call to boost global prosperity he made Sept. 6 at the first Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi.

Parched land during a devastating drought in Kenya in 2022. Photographer: Tony Karumba/AFP/Getty Images

In his UN address, Ramaphosa castigated industrialized nations for not honoring a 2009 commitment to provide $100 billion a year in climate finance, a refrain he made in two other speeches in New York and in an open letter this week to South Africans. Yet, his own Environment Minister Barbara Creecy, said in an interview that developing nations should stop "harping on" about the $100 billion and make plans for the future. 

The president didn't mention that South Africa has relied on coal to produce electricity for almost a century and today is the world's 14th-biggest producer of climate-warming gases. Its economy lags only Mongolia and the Solomon Islands in terms of carbon intensity.

Ruto is bolstering his credibility abroad, masking economic difficulties at home, while Ramaphosa, according to some diplomats, is squandering some of the goodwill afforded to him after he took power in 2018.

While the Kenyan leader told a side event at the UN that "we do not want to piggy back on other people," Ramaphosa appears to be looking to have his languishing economy bailed out.

Key stories and opinion:
Kenya Wants Africa to Sell Green Solutions at COP, Not Seek Aid
How South Africa Plans to Spend $8.5 Billion of Climate Funding
How Global Warming Makes Extreme Weather More Likely
Just Energy Transition Partnerships and How They Work
Africa Could Become a Climate Savior, Not Victim: Lara Williams

News Roundup

Burkina Faso's military junta said it thwarted an attempted coup, the latest sign of instability in the West African nation. A group of army officers and their allies who planned to attack state institutions were arrested, a government spokesman said. Burkina's transitional leader, Ibrahim Traore, seized power a year ago, overthrowing Interim President Henri Paul Sandaogo Damiba — himself a soldier who mounted a coup in January 2022. Meanwhile, August's coup in Gabon that ousted a key French ally in President Ali Bongo, shook up bond investors by destabilizing one of the region's few international borrowers.

French soldiers during an operation in northern Burkina Faso in 2019.  Photographer: Michele Cattani /AFP/Getty Images

The European Union is finalizing partnerships with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to boost local industries as the bloc competes with China to secure critical materials for the green and digital sectors, sources say. The EU has signed similar deals with Canada, Kazakhstan, Namibia, Ukraine, Argentina and Chile, and is exploring accords with Rwanda and Uganda.

Glencore and Seriti Resources are in talks to cut hundreds of jobs in South Africa as their ability to export coal is stymied by inefficiencies at the state-run freight company. Transnet, which transports the fuel from mines in Mpumalanga province to Richards Bay Coal Terminal, has been hobbled by sabotage, cable theft and aging equipment. While it's taken steps to improve security and ease procurement rules to lower costs, performance has declined.

France's ambassador to Niger left the country three days after President Emmanuel Macron said the envoy would be pulled out of the West African nation. Sylvain Itte and six colleagues departed the capital, Niamey, on a plane to Paris via Chad, according to two French officials. Tensions between Niger's military leaders and its former colonial power have deteriorated since a junta ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in July and cut military ties with France. 

Nigeria's Senate approved the appointment of Olayemi Cardoso as the next central bank governor, as Africa's biggest economy grapples with a plunging currency and runaway inflation. The sign off on the nomination of Cardoso, a former Citibank Nigeria chairman, and four deputy governors paves the way for the central bank to hold a monetary policy committee meeting after one scheduled for this week was postponed following the resignations of five panel members. Read our QuickTake explainer on efforts to shake up the economy.

Cardoso Source: Central Bank of Nigeria

Kenyan Treasury Secretary Njuguna Ndung'u blamed the shilling's sharp slide against the dollar on years of policy missteps at the nation's central bank. The currency is on course for its steepest decline since 2008, when the East African economy suffered the fallout of post-election violence that left more than 1,100 people dead. The currency isn't in "free-fall" and is only adjusting to past policy decisions, including a directive that the exchange rate could only "fluctuate 20 cents either way," the minister said.

Next Africa Quiz — Which nation's currency breached 1,000 to the US dollar on the informal market this week? Send your answer to  gbell16@bloomberg.net 

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • Kenya's eurobonds plunged after Ruto said rich countries should work toward "a new sovereign debt architecture" to provide relief for poor nations.
  • Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate plummeted to 18.4% in September from 77.2% after the statistics agency changed its methodology to reflect the increased use of US dollars in the economy. The central bank kept its key interest rate at 150%
  • Ghana left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 30%, while warning that it stands ready to increase rates if inflation picks up again.  

Nigeria plans to overhaul its tax system to shift more of the burden to wealthy citizens while cutting corporate taxes. The move — part of President Bola Tinubu's reforms to transform the economy — aims to lift the tax take to 18% of gross domestic product within three years from 11% now. 

Coming Up

  • Oct. 2 South African manufacturing PMI & new-vehicle sales data for September, Angolan reserves
  • Oct. 3 Kenya interest-rate decision, Nigeria PMI
  • Oct. 4 September country PMI releases for Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia and South Africa; Uganda current account balance 
  • Oct. 5 Mozambique PMI for September
  • Oct. 6 Mauritius inflation & reserves, Seychelles inflation, South African reserves, all for September

Quote of the Week

"We are having a massive brain drain, we can see it galloping," Matthew Parks, acting spokesman for the Congress of South African Trade Unions, said of the number of teachers and nurses leaving the country.

A classroom at the Majakaneng Primary School in Marikana, South Africa. Photographer: Guillem Sartorio/Bloomberg

Last Word

Climate change intensified the torrential rain and flooding that swept South Africa's Western Cape province this week, claiming at least 11 lives and forcing thousands to flee their homes. The rains, which came just a week after larger-than-normal spring tides and earlier deluges, closed major routes into Cape Town, a coastal city of four million people, and damaged wheat crops, bridges and other infrastructure. At two weather stations in the city, the rain was the highest for a day in September in at least 22 years, according to the Weather Service. South Africa is increasingly being hit by climate disasters. Last year, flooding in the eastern province of KwaZulu-Natal killed at least 435 people and in 2017 Cape Town almost ran out of water due to a severe drought.

An elderly man is carried across a flooded road in Sir Lowry's Village, South Africa, on Sept. 25. Photographer: Rodger Bosch/AFP/Getty Images

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