Friday, August 4, 2023

Supply Lines: Ukraine grain shipments

Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain export deal last month raised the stakes in the effort to keep Ukrainian supplies flowing. At issue i

Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain export deal last month raised the stakes in the effort to keep Ukrainian supplies flowing.  

At issue is global access to food and affordability at a time when inflation shows few signs of letting up. Food supply risks are multiplying again, with extreme weather and India's rice export restrictions adding to the concerns.

As a result, global food prices are on the rise. According to data released Friday, the United Nations' global food index rose for the first time in three months in July. The rice index reached its highest nominal level since 2011.

Ukraine has redirected some crop exports by rail, road and river through its European neighbors, but those volumes are causing tensions. Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, along with Bulgaria and Romania, have banned purchases of Ukrainian grain after declining prices spurred protests from local farmers.

A key route to ship Ukrainian grain is the Danube, though that's expensive and lacks capacity. The Kremlin has also escalated assaults on grain infrastructure in Ukraine, including attacking Danube ports. It also fired missiles that damaged equipment at a cargo terminal in the Odesa region.

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The options for farmers who made Ukraine a global breadbasket are narrowing as the economics of their business deteriorates. They have limited storage space as this year's harvest piles up. Major farm companies are curbing winter crop plantings.

Decisions taken over the next few weeks in Ukraine — for wheat, barley and rapeseed — will have repercussions for the 2024 harvest. That will hit both Kyiv's precious wartime revenues, and global supplies of key food staples.

Meanwhile, more than 90 countries joined the US in signing a joint communique condemning the weaponization of food, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Leading a UN debate on efforts to combat global hunger, he zeroed in on Russia for disrupting the flow of food with its war on Ukraine and the grain deal exit.

Another sign of Russia using food as a political tool: It may offer cheaper grain exports to countries that have not imposed sanctions. The government could get the power to lower duties on commodities exports including grain and fertilizers to "friendly" countries, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said this week. 

Diplomatic efforts are still underway to persuade Russia to return to talks on the export deal from countries including South Africa, which has adopted a non-aligned stance toward the war.  

Charted Territory

Barley thaw | China will scrap import tariffs on Australian barley from Aug. 5 in the latest sign of improving ties between the two countries. The commerce ministry said it's no longer necessary to continue imposing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley following changes in the Chinese market. Beijing imposed tariffs of more than 80% on Australian barley in May 2020, accusing its exporters of dumping on the Chinese market. The move came as bilateral ties were spiraling downward after then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an international investigation into the origins of Covid-19. Beijing also restricted imports of other Australian goods including wine and lobsters. But since the election of the center-left Labor government in May 2022, communications between Canberra and Beijing have resumed and relations improved markedly (Read the full story here).

Today's Must Reads

  • Beyond Meat pushed faux beef in China, a nation that prefers pork and which already had plenty of non-animal protein options. It's an even tougher market than the US. 
  • Amazon.com is launching the biggest overhaul of its grocery business since it acquired Whole Foods Market six years ago—revamping stores, testing new highly automated warehouses and, for the first time, offering fresh-food delivery to customers who aren't Prime subscribers.
  • Shipping giant Maersk lowered its estimate for global container trade, seeing no major signs of a recovery this year.
  • Disruptions at two North American ports have created a logjam in fertilizer exports that will take weeks to be resolved, according to top supplier Nutrien.
  • Fonterra Cooperative Group, the world's largest dairy exporter, slashed its forecast payment to New Zealand farmers after a drop in demand from Chinese buyers.
  • Bad news has emerged for chocolate lovers: It's going to get more expensive to satisfy your cravings.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Tyson Foods may continue to face market pressure that could dent margins in fiscal 3Q, with elevated costs of raw materials and labor expected to weigh on, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • Russia's commodity export hub in the Black Sea was closed for several hours on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a naval vessel, the first time that operations at the key shipment point for oil and grains have been disrupted by the war.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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