Thursday, August 3, 2023

Supply Lines: Cruise control

As citizens across Europe head off on summer holidays this month, tourism is expected to boost economies and accelerate the service sector's

As citizens across Europe head off on summer holidays this month, tourism is expected to boost economies and accelerate the service sector's return to pre-pandemic levels.

Among the recent reminders of tourism's importance: A new cruise ship saved the French economy from stalling this quarter. French gross domestic product rose to 0.5% thanks to a jump in some goods exports including the delivery of the luxury liner, after economists had estimated an expansion of just 0.1%.

The episode can be chalked up to a statistical fluke tied to the timing of the massive ship's arrival date. But it's also a reminder that tourism — counted in a nation's GDP as a services import or export depending on who's doing the spending and where — is still on a recovery track.

Read More: Amsterdam to Ban Cruise Ships to Control Tourism, Pollution

According to the Cruise Lines International Association, the industry is one of the fastest-growing in the tourism sector and is forecast to grow further in the coming years.

With 2,419 cabins, the French-built and LNG-powered MSC Euribia is off to become another channel for services trade across Europe. MSC, the Swiss shipping giant that's also the world's largest container carrier, is advertising week-long voyages on its newest vessel starting at £499 ($633) from the UK port of Southampton, with stops in France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Read More: Cruises Risk Shorter-Term Climate Damage With Methane Leaks

It offers plenty to do on board — five pools, 21 bars and more than 100 hours of live entertainment for kids. But in economic terms, it's a 331-meter-long (1,086-foot-long) vessel for services trade carrying as many as 6,300 consumers who like to spend money on land, too.

 "When you think about tourism, you think about people traveling. You might see the economic impact, but in many cases you don't see it as an export category," said Sandra Carvao, director of market intelligence and competitiveness at the UN World Tourism Organization. "However, at the end of the day international tourism represents an entrance of money from the visitor economy into the destination country."

Prior to the pandemic, exports from international tourism accounted for 28% of the world's trade in services and 7% of overall exports of goods and services, according to the UNWTO. Tourism was the third-biggest export category, after fuels and chemicals, and ahead of food and automotive products.

No Recession in Sight From Deck of a Cruise Ship: Jonathan Levin

The sector was hammered by the pandemic, with export revenues incurring a loss of $2.1 trillion over a two-year period. The sector is now recovering. International tourism receipts — the expenditures by international inbound visitors — reached $1 trillion in 2022, and grew 50% in real terms compared with 2021, driven by the rebound in global travel.

According to data compiled by the UNWTO, Europe enjoyed the best results in 2022 with $550 billion in tourism receipts, equivalent to 87% of pre-pandemic levels.

Sofia Gerace in Brussels

Charted Territory


Defying sanctions | Several of Russia's refined oil products are trading above the price cap imposed by Group of Seven nations, in another sign that the value of its barrels is rising in defiance of sanctions. Since February, there have been two caps on the sale of Russian refined fuels, one for higher value products at $100 a barrel and another for lower ones at $45. Argus Media, whose prices are central to the caps, says naphtha and fuel oil are trading above the lower cap, while diesel is trading above the higher one. Of the products that are yet to breach the cap at Russia's western ports, gasoil and gasoline are both approaching that ceiling, with the value of both fuels surging globally. 

Today's Must Reads

  • France is looking at ways to prevent Velan, a domestic supplier of parts for nuclear reactors, from falling into US hands as it aims to protect a strategic industry. Meanwhile, India is requiring licenses for the import of computers from laptops to tablets, the latest measure intended to encourage local electronics production.
  • Australia's monthly trade surplus widened in June as iron-ore shipments gained while overall exports slid less than imports.
  • Amazon.com is launching the biggest overhaul of its grocery business since it acquired Whole Foods Market six years ago—revamping stores, testing new highly automated warehouses and, for the first time, offering fresh-food delivery to customers who aren't Prime subscribers.
  • The cargo ship that caught on fire last week with thousands of cars on board is being towed to Eemshaven port in northeastern Netherlands, where it will be inspected now that the blaze is out.
  • A planned announcement on the expansion of BRICS at a forthcoming summit in South Africa will mark a significant change in the global order, the nation's ambassador to the five-nation bloc said, even as some of its members push back against new admissions.
  • Chinese EV makers have massively ramped up their export capacity and one in particular — BYD — sells more total vehicles than Tesla does. On this episode of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, the hosts speak with Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF about the big shift underway in the global automotive landscape.
  • Creditors led by Apollo Global Management are nearing a deal to provide  Yellow trucking company with fresh cash during a coming bankruptcy. 
  • South Africa became Europe's alternative to Russian coal after Putin's army invaded Ukraine last year. But the soaring demand also wreaked havoc on the country's roads as thousands of trucks rushed in to exploit the surge and the problems aren't going away.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • When UPS releases earnings, Bloomberg Intelligence will be looking for any insight into how management aims to mitigate the higher labor costs brought on by a new contact, along with the broad-based inflationary pressure facing the company.
  • North American rail traffic fell 3.4% in the week ended July 29, according to AAR, on weakness in forest and intermodal volume. China's slow recovery may continue to challenge commodities, unless domestic stimulus action takes hold, Bloomberg Intelligence says. 
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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