Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Next Africa: Testing Nigerians’ patience

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.Two months into his presidency,

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.

Two months into his presidency, Bola Tinubu has had to issue an impassioned defense of decisions that have roiled Nigeria's economy and increased hardship for the nation's more than 200 million people.

Tinubu's actions — most notably abolishing a cripplingly expensive fuel subsidy and allowing the naira to weaken — were long overdue and have been rewarded with a stock-market rally. His argument that he's dismantling a structure that allowed members of the elite to enrich themselves rings true.

Shoppers and traders in a street market in Lagos on July 17. Photographer: Benson Ibeabuchi/Bloomberg

But at street level, it's harder to swallow. Inflation, spurred by a tripling of the price of gasoline and more expensive imports, is accelerating at its fastest pace in almost 18 years, and interest rates are at a record high. 

"Our economy is going through a tough patch and you are being hurt by it," he said in a national address. "I understand the hardship you face."

Tinubu, who was part of the same political elite that created the problems over the past two decades, laid out a $650 million package of measures he's taking to ease the pain for households. 

Those include some subsidized grain, distribution of fertilizer and the deferment of taxes in a bid to boost manufacturing. The government will also review the minimum wage.

None are quick fixes. 

Tinubu's policy decision endeared himself to capital markets and he has asked his citizens for time with a promise of better days ahead.

That's trying the patience of his fellow Nigerians, who have heard the line before. 

Key stories:
Nigerians Left Cold by Tinubu Reforms as Investors Applaud
Nigeria's Tinubu Unveils Broad Plan to Ease Cost of Living Pain
How Nigeria's Leader Is Shaking Up a Shaky Economy
Surging Food Prices Spur Nigeria to Declare an Emergency 
Nigeria's Leader Thrills Markets With Week of Radical Change

News Roundup

West Africa's regional economic bloc warned it may use military force to remove the leader of a coup in Niger unless the junta reinstates its democratically elected president. The threat by the Economic Community of West African States came after thousands of people rallied in the capital on Sunday in support of the takeover. Meanwhile, the army leadership of neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso said that any military intervention against Niger would amount to a declaration of war against the West African nations. The Niger crisis leaves French President Emmanuel Macron's Africa strategy in tatters, and the former colonial power is evacuating its citizens.

Coup leader General Abdourahamane Tiani. Photographer: ORTN/AP Photo

An often impenetrable logjam of trucks laden with coal at South Africa's crossing with Mozambique has brought chaos to a sleepy border town. The trucks began trundling through Komatipoort in ever greater numbers on their way to Maputo port, from where their cargos are sent around the world, after South Africa became one of Europe's main alternatives to Russian coal following the invasion of Ukraine. The congestion has created opportunities for criminals who see drivers stranded in the queue for days as easy targets.

Ghana almost halved its forecast for growth this year amid a sluggish economy, global headwinds and the impact of fiscal belt-tightening under an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta also said in his mid-term budget review that the target for the country's 2023 primary budget – which excludes interest payments from expenditures – was cut to a deficit of 0.5% of GDP compared with a previously projected surplus.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gifted Zimbabwean leader Emmerson Mnangagwa a presidential helicopter, according to the African nation's government, as a show of their close ties. Zimbabwe is also among several African countries that were promised free grain from Russia, a donation announced by Putin during last week's Russia-Africa summit. The Mi-38 helicopter "will soon be gracing our skies," Information Secretary Nick Mangwana said in an X post.

Senegal's opposition leader was charged with plotting an insurrection, criminal conspiracy and theft and had his political party dissolved. Ousmane Sonko will remain in custody while authorities investigate his role in protests in June that broke out after he was sentenced to two years in prison for morally corrupting a youth. Sonko was seen as posing the biggest threat to Senegalese President Macky Sall's ruling coalition in the 2024 presidential elections. 

A demonstrator hurls a stone at the police during a protest in Dakar on June 1. Photographer: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images

Tinubu has appointed a special investigator to examine the Nigerian central bank's operations, weeks after he suspended its governor, Godwin Emefiele. While it didn't spell out specific allegations of corruption, the letter from the president directed that Jim Obazee assemble a team to probe the monetary authority and its related entities and work with security and anti-corruption agencies. Tinubu ousted Emefiele soon after taking office on May 29 and the central bank head was later arrested and has been charged with possessing a single-barreled shotgun and 123 rounds of live ammunition without a license.

Chart of the Week

Kenya's inflation rate fell more than expected in July and reached the central bank's target range earlier than projected despite an increase in taxes on gasoline. The main driver of the slowdown was food prices. However, inflation pressures are likely to stay elevated on continued currency weakness and new taxes that were introduced to fund the nation's record budget.

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