Donald Trump's indictment for attempting to overturn the 2020 election points to the turbulence ahead going into next year's ballot. Yet the US isn't alone in entering a period of heightened political uncertainty. Key Reading: Trump Prepares for First Court Date in DC on New Federal Charges Popular Taiwan Mayor Stumbles in Bid to Lead in US-China Hotspot Green Pledges Become Election Lightning Rod for Sunak and Labour 'Electoral Manipulation' Research Sparks Controversy in India Some of the world's most populous countries face votes in 2024, from India to Mexico, Egypt and Indonesia. While each year brings a revolving door of ballots, next year's electoral calendar looks especially onerous, with far-reaching implications for economies, investment and foreign policy. January sees Taiwan hold presidential and parliamentary elections that will shape the island's stance on China, with consequences for the US as well as the world. Voting in the 27 nations of the European Union in June is likely to reflect a swing to the nationalist right across the bloc, with implications for Europe's support for Ukraine in its war against invading Russian forces, and for the future of the EU itself. Russia is scheduled to hold presidential elections in March, and while the outcome is usually a foregone conclusion, this ballot is less predictable after June's rebellion by Wagner mercenaries cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's hold on power. Ukraine is also due to hold elections, though wartime martial law will have to be lifted first. Africa faces potentially epochal change in its most advanced economy with the prospect that South Africans toss out the African National Congress for the first time in the three decades since apartheid's end. Polls suggest UK voters may ditch Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives for Labour, ending 14 years of turbulent rule that delivered Brexit. Democracy, as Winston Churchill said, is the worst system apart from all the others. As Trump appears in a Washington court today for the opening round of a fight for America's democracy, it's clearly alive and kicking elsewhere. But that doesn't stop the world from confronting an unwelcome bout of political volatility just when it's needed least. — Alan Crawford |
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