Thursday, August 3, 2023

A step too far

The Readout With Allegra Stratton.

For most of today the prime minister's constituency home has been a ghoulish sight. This morning, Greenpeace activists climbed onto the roof of the North Yorkshire residence and unfurled black fabric down its brickwork, in protest at the decision on Monday to "max out" North Sea oil and gas extraction. The late artist Christo's L'Arc de Triomphe, Wrapped, this is not — intentionally, of course: the protesters have created something that is shocking and dark. 

Greenpeace activists drape Rishi Sunak's property in black fabric Photographer: Luca Marino/Greenpeace/PA

I'm not averse to some of Greenpeace's campaigns. When I was in government I was moved by this video of a tide of plastic bottles flooding Downing Street, or "Wasteminster" as they called it. Nor am I an enthusiast for the hundreds of new oil and gas licenses announced on Monday.

Many of us sympathize with Greenpeace in being ultra-worried about what we're doing to the natural world, including the PM if we go by his commitment to net zero and the 2030 target for phasing out new diesel and petrol cars (not old ones by the way: if you want to drive your old banger into the 2030s, as well as buy second and third hand internal combustion engines, the policy lets you. The government needs to communicate this more clearly.) 

But this stunt felt too much. How can it be possible to let activists get up on a prime minister's roof and remain there for hours? Yes, Rishi Sunak, his wife and their daughters are friends of mine but the same would be true if it were Keir Starmer's house. We want talented people to go into public life in this country, don't we? And yet must they brace for black fabric enveloping their children's bedrooms? 

Right now, for all the sound and fury of the last few weeks, a cross-party consensus remains on net zero but stunts like this risk repulsing parts of that broad coalition, including members of the public. Hopefully next time Greenpeace will stick to their clever campaigns that shore up public demand for action, not ones that shake it.

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

Interest rates HIIT class

As someone teaching a six-year-old halves and quarters this summer (don't worry, sometimes it's with ice cream) the interest rate decision today feels familiar. All day Bloomberg's Markets Today live blog — the Roman Forum of informed debate for these sorts of events — has boiled down to a discussion between 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points. 

After last month's half point rise by the Bank of England — the much-vaunted slamming on the brakes as gentle nudges weren't working — today was a reversion to the more modest tap of 25 basis points.

If this piece by Bloomberg's Alex Wickham is anything to go by, you can hear the exhalation of relief from the Treasury. Last week, Alex revealed grave concern inside No. 11 that the Bank of England might go too far. Today's decision reflects the big change in the last month — the fact that inflation has dropped below 8%

Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

The bad news for the government — though it was largely priced in — is that today's increase takes us to a 15-year high. Slowly rolling agony for those remortgaging, and for businesses too. Wilko, a British low-cost retailer with 400 stores, signaled it is at risk of insolvency, putting thousands of jobs in jeopardy.

One of the UK's best businessmen says these rates should be kept in perspective. Speaking to Bloomberg's In The City podcast, Pret a Manger and Itsu founder Julian Metcalfe sees this as nothing compared to the economy in which he launched Pret in 1986: "Everyone's complaining about 5% and it's the end of the world. Back then I remember we paid 14%."

But today's 25 basis point increase makes for slightly lower rates than the fevered speculation that kicked off after the last hike — which counts for sort of decent news. Today the Bank of England also predicted that the government will hit its December target to have halved inflation within the year (a prediction in Alex's piece too.) 

Now the chat is about what next. Here's Bloomberg's David Goodman with what sounds like a HIIT class

"Market bets essentially suggest the hiking cycle will be done this year. Give or take a few basis points, the current implied path broadly suggests a 25 bp move in September, and then one more in either November or December. So hike-skip-hike-pause or just hike-hike-pause. Of the two, a second hike in November may be more likely because that's another meeting with a press conference. But if either happens, the cycle will be wrapped up before we enter the likely year of the next election, a potential positive for Sunak." 

Governor Andrew Bailey was having none of it at this afternoon's press conference in the Bank of England dungeon — "I don't think it's time to declare it's all over" — and indicated it's jobs and wages data policymakers are watching as closely as, if not more than, inflation figures. 

But Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua asked everyone's burning question — when will rates start to come down? "Nice try," Bailey said to her, adding that it's "far too soon to speculate." David Goodman says market pricing this afternoon suggests traders believe a cut could "come into view next summer." Watch this space.

Calling all startups

What we've been reading

Tough seasonChelsea FC has approached investors about raising capital.

Resilient. Next raised its profit guidance for the second time in recent months after wet weather and sticky inflation failed to deter shoppers.

It's electricBMW is stepping up spending on its electric-car rollout after EV deliveries more than doubled during the first half of the year.

A question of security. Does Rishi Sunak's change of approach on energy — and the announcement of  hundreds of new licenses for oil and gas production in the North Sea — mean more energy security for the UK?

The big number 

€400 Million
Adidas reported big figures from Yeezy sales in the second quarter, despite a furore over the antisemitic views of the rapper behind the discontinued collaboration.

The deepening mystery of a billionaire's murder

One key story, every weekday

Photo illustration by Mike McQuade

Almost six years after pharmaceutical billionaire Barry Sherman and his wife Honey became two of the wealthiest people ever to be murdered, police still haven't identified the killers. But along the way, they've turned up no shortage of potential suspects, and a bare-knuckle family drama.

Read The Big Take.

Allegra Stratton worked for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter.

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