Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Xi’s mission

Chinese President Xi Jinping is talking up the economy

Xi Jinping appears to be on a mission to single handedly jawbone the Chinese economy and markets higher.

While Xi and senior officials have not promised loads of fresh stimulus, the Chinese leader has vowed to treat private companies better, offered an olive branch to the embattled real-estate sector and dangled promises to boost consumption in two major policy documents in the space of a week.

Key Reading:
China's 'Dovish' Politburo Signals Rate Cuts, Property Easing
China to Review Official Appointments, Removals Tuesday
China Envoy's Month-Long Absence Takes Toll on Xi's Diplomacy
Xi's China Markets Lifeline Raises Hope This Time Rally Can Hold

Markets rallied on the news. But his messaging campaign comes at a tricky time.

Xi's hold on power rests on the belief he drives prosperity for his people. Yet economic growth has been — relatively speaking, for China — muted, and local government debt problematic.

Xi has also met with plenty of outside guests of late including former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and American billionaire Bill Gates. He's due to see Indonesian President Joko Widodo this week in the southwestern city of Chengdu. A tally by the official Xinhua News Agency shows he's met with over 30 foreign guests so far this year.

The domestic and international strands of that outreach are linked. Xi's focus on getting the economy moving creates an incentive to lower tensions with others — the US in particular — especially over trade. To spur domestic demand, Xi needs foreign businesses coming in.

But Xi's big push is not without risk. Putting his very personal stamp on the health of the economy means he gets the credit if things go well. If they don't, he is visibly the one who was driving.

He also has the delicate problem of his foreign minister, Qin Gang, a protege who has not been seen in public for about a month, with no explanation.

The refusal to reveal anything at all about the workings of the ruling Communist Party when it comes to senior officials doesn't inspire investor confidence in China.

With the economy the way it is, that is something Beijing can ill afford. 

A giant screen showing footage of Xi speaking on July 4. Photographer: Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images

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Global Headlines

Russia's attacks on a port on the Danube River as part of its intensifying efforts to cripple a vital export route for Ukrainian grain has sent wheat prices to the highest level in five months. The destruction of a grain hanger in Reni, just across the river from NATO member Romania, came about a week after Moscow ended a deal that had allowed Ukraine to ship its crops across the Black Sea, and subsequently attacked Odesa ports.

  • European Union agriculture ministers will discuss how to facilitate exports of Ukrainian grain during a meeting in Brussels today.
  • Russia is supplying wheat to Mali, bolstering ties with one of its strongest African allies. 

Israel's legislation limiting the power of the courts that parliament passed yesterday has investors and lawyers worried. While the law's advocates argue it will reduce judicial abuse, opponents say they now fear political abuse. "We're entering a twilight zone," said Elah Alkalay, head of corporate responsibility at Tel Aviv's IBI Investment House.  

South Africa is suffering its worst-ever electricity blackouts and patience is fraying over the deterioration of municipal services, leading to 122 protests in the first six months of the year. At that rate, this year may overtake the 237 incidents of 2018, dwarfing the lull during the pandemic years.

President Joe Biden is set today to enshrine a national monument for Emmett Till, the Black teenager whose lynching in 1955 galvanized the US civil rights movement. As Akayla Gardner writes, it will give Biden an opportunity to draw contrasts with one of his top Republican challengers, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has drawn widespread criticism for defending his state's new school curriculum that says formerly enslaved Black Americans gained beneficial life skills from chattel slavery.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Semiautomatic American-made guns exported to countries around the world are often linked to violent crimes, and manufacturers such as Sig Sauer have found an eager ally to fuel the overseas push: The US federal government has helped push international sales of rapid-fire weapons to record levels. The US firearm industry has worked to weaken gun-control laws in other nations, particularly in Latin America, while industry-backed oversight changes have reduced Congress's ability to monitor sales abroad.

An attendee handles an automatic rifle manufactured by Sig Sauer at the Eurosatory defense and security trade fair in Paris on June 13, 2022.   Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

Explainers You Can Use

Starvation is threatening about 42,000 people in northeastern Burkina Faso, where Islamist militants are laying siege to towns and villages, the International Rescue Committee says. As Antony Sguazzin writes, a combination of rising insecurity and climate change has left millions displaced across swathes of West Africa's Sahel region, with the number of people suffering from severe food insecurity rising more than sixfold since 2014 to 5.4 million.

Tune in to Bloomberg TV's Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents Annmarie Hordern and Joe Mathieu. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note

  • Envoys from China and Russia are set to become the first foreign delegations to visit North Korea since the pandemic started, a sign of opening by the secretive nation.
  • DeSantis plans to shake up his 2024 campaign leadership, sources say, amid pressure from donors and supporters to salvage his struggling US presidential bid.
  • Argentina's talk of ample financing to be provided by the International Monetary Fund on the eve of its presidential election highlights the concern over how markets would digest the actual delay in negotiations for a refinancing program.
  • Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga said he's ready to hold talks with the government even as he vowed to continue with protests to demand tax cuts and an audit of last year's elections.
  • Thailand's parliament called off a vote to select a new prime minister set for Thursday as pro-democracy parties struggled to find enough support from among conservative senators and pro-royalist parties to form a government.

And finally ... Wildfires engulfing Greek holiday islands are a dramatic illustration of the fact that Europe's €1.9 trillion ($2.1 trillion) travel and tourism industry needs to confront the realities of climate change and adapt. Summers have been getting more intense in Mediterranean countries, and scientists say it's going to get worse even if we can limit global warming. That means travel patterns will be remapped in a way that will inevitably hit parts of southern Europe that currently depend on tourism.

Visitors crowd around a water fountain in Rome on July 17. Photographer: Gaia Squarci/Bloomberg

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