Monday, July 24, 2023

Supply Lines: China’s limited options

Beijing is promising to retaliate against the proposed US curbs on outbound investment and further export restrictions, but China's options

Beijing is promising to retaliate against the proposed US curbs on outbound investment and further export restrictions, but China's options to hit back without hurting itself just as badly may be limited, especially if it wants to remain an attractive place for foreign investment.

Despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's claim that the new controls would be "narrowly targeted" and wouldn't "have a fundamental impact on affecting the investment climate for China," China's representative in Washington reacted angrily last week.

"The Chinese people cannot remain silent and the government cannot simply sit idly by," Ambassador Xie Feng told the Aspen Security Forum. "China definitely will make our response but definitely it's not our hope to have a tit-for-tat. We don't want a trade war, a technological war. We want to say goodbye to the Iron Curtain as well as the silicon curtain."

Read More: Here's How China Supports Economy as Stimulus Awaited

Over the past few years, China has been building out its legal toolbox to fight back against sanctions from the US and others.

But unlike the US and its global reach, Beijing has much more limited options to retaliate and its only real tools are domestic. Based on recent history, those include measures to limit or stop exports, punish foreign firms that operate in China or prevent companies from accessing its huge market.

China has tried to use these tools to push other countries to change policies it didn't like — with limited success:

  • Restrictions on rare-earth exports pushed Japan to set up a new source of supply in Australia and cut it's dependence on China, and recent export controls on two metals used to make semiconductors may have the same effect if Beijing uses the new licensing process to actually cut exports.
  • Blocks on trade with Australia and Lithuania were unsuccessful in forcing real foreign policy changes on those countries but did drive up the price of Australian barley for Chinese companies and annoyed officials in Europe.
  • Sanctions imposed on European officials and organizations in retaliation for European sanctions merely torpedoed an investment deal that China wanted to sign with the bloc.
  • And the fines announced on two US defence contractors this year for involvement in arms sales to Taiwan were purely symbolic, as the companies have no business in China to fine.

However, if Beijing were to really start punishing US firms in the country or restricting exports to retaliate, it would damage already shaky business confidence and undermine the government's own efforts to attract newforeign investment, which dropped by almost 3% in the first six months of the year.

US sanctions cause pain for its own companies, with America's largest semiconductor companies recently lobbying to try and head off new curbs on their sales to China. For China, the dilemma of how to retaliate without self-inflicted economic wounds looks to be even more complicated.

Related Reading

—By Bloomberg News

Charted Territory

UPS and Downs | A potential strike by 340,000 unionized workers at United Parcel Service Inc. threatens to unravel progress in tackling two of the US economy's biggest hurdles in decades: inflation and supply-chain disruptions. In the absence of a labor deal by Aug. 1, a walkout by members of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters would snarl shipments of the 19 million packages that UPS moves daily in the US. It would also enable competitors such as FedEx to raise prices to help throttle some of the parcels that would pour into its networks. The talks to renew the five-year contract are scheduled resume this week.

Today's Must Reads

  • Apple is asking suppliers to produce about 85 million units of the iPhone 15 this year, roughly in line with the year before.
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's push to elevate economic ties with Vietnam, on display with a high-profile trip last week, drew criticism for seeking to strengthen US supply chains by replacing one repressive country with another.
  • Dozens of drugs made by Pfizer may be more difficult for hospitals to purchase because they were manufactured at the company's North Carolina plant that was damaged by a tornado last week.
  • Germany's automakers announced bold plans the last several years to shift to electric cars and challenge Tesla's dominance. Instead, they're only falling further behind. 
  • Republican lawmakers are probing Ford's partnership with a Chinese battery company for its new $3.5 billion plant in Michigan, scrutinizing issues around American jobs, technology sharing and links to forced labor. 
  • Europe might face challenges to its energy security next winter, even after building up inventories, according to the head of the continent's busiest port. 
  • Fast-fashion giant Shein spent $600,000 on US lobbying efforts in the second quarter as it continues to face questions from lawmakers about forced labor and its opaque supply chain.
  • Every day, thousands of tons of illegally mined material are being trucked away in a remote corner of South Africa, vanishing into an unaccountable export market for chrome ore used to satisfy global demand for stainless steel.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • A strike by Teamsters at UPS would weigh on its earnings and the economy, given it would add new supply-chain snarls. Amazon.com — UPS' biggest customer — would be somewhat buffered by its in-house logistics unit. FedEx would be the biggest beneficiary, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • Automobiles could set the tone for this year's seaborne trade volume growth after leaping 25% in the first half, according to Clarksons data, fueled by a spike in Chinese exports, Bloomberg Intelligence says.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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