| Home prices in the US are on the rise again, perhaps slowing the Federal Reserve's race to finish off inflation. Demand for homes around the country continues to outpace supply, despite a rapid rise in borrowing costs spurred by the central bank's rate hikes. Cooling inflation has some experts (including Ben Bernanke) predicting that the expected rate hike this month may be the last of Jerome Powell's campaign. But a resilient housing market could mean the Fed Chair's war will continue into the fall, either by way of more rate hikes or simply keeping rates where they are for longer. "If housing begins to recover more meaningfully, that raises the risk that inflation is going to be more sticky," said Torsten Slok, chief economist for Apollo Global Management. "The real risk here is—meaning from a markets perspective—that the Fed has to step harder on the brakes." —Natasha Solo-Lyons In April, business economists were evenly split on the prospects for a US recession. Now they've become the latest group to retreat from the unrealized downturn predictions that marked the past year. A strong majority of respondents to a National Association for Business Economics survey now say the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less. More than one in four respondents in the July survey put the chance of a downturn in the next year as low as 25%—or less. A few years back, top investment bankers at Goldman Sachs wouldn't bother returning calls from recruiters at smaller rivals. This year, managers at Jefferies, Evercore and PJT Partners say they've been inundated with CVs from the likes of Goldman, Barclays and, of course, Credit Suisse. Elon Musk has changed Twitter's logo, replacing its signature blue bird with a stylized X as part of the voluble billionaire's bid to transform the troubled 17-year-old service. Many Americans are actually choosing to move to ZIP codes with a high risk of wildfire, extreme heat, drought and flood, according to a new study.  A pedestrian walks through a flooded street in Miami last year. Florida is on the front lines of the climate crisis, but people keep moving there. Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images North America UBS will pay a total of about $387 million in fines related to misconduct at Credit Suisse in its dealings with Archegos Capital Management, as UBS starts picking up the legal tab of its defunct rival. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could notify the US as soon as this week about her plan to pull Italy out of a controversial investment pact with China. Meloni is set to discuss the issue when she meets US President Joe Biden at the White House later this week. Israel's right-wing government approved a law that will curb the oversight powers of the courts, a measure that's spurred furious protests by tens of thousands of Israelis. It's also drawn rare criticism from the US government. The shekel fell—recording the biggest daily loss among a basket of major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.  Israeli security forces use water cannons against protesters outside the Knesset in Jerusalem Monday. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg - Greek islands burn as record European heat is forecast in Italy.
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While Hollywood's workers strike, cinemas are celebrating. Barbie, a comedy about the famous fashion doll, and Oppenheimer, a biography of the inventor of the atomic bomb, brought out movie fans in droves, helping box office revenue this weekend more than double from a year earlier to about $302 million.  Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg Get the Bloomberg Evening Briefing: If you were forwarded this newsletter, sign up here to receive it in your mailbox daily along with our Weekend Reading edition on Saturdays. The Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit returns to Singapore on July 26. Join us in person or virtually for programs convening business leaders and investors to drive innovation and scale best practices in sustainable business and finance. Register now to secure your spot. | 
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