Monday, July 24, 2023

An eagerly anticipated debut in Turkey

Also: Risky Saudi bets, fateful Israel vote

Turkey's new central bank governor will make her public debut this week, when she unveils her outlook for consumer inflation and monetary policy.

Thursday's meeting will be Hafize Gaye Erkan's first chance to persuade investors that Turkey is making an earnest attempt at reining in runaway inflation after years of expansionary policies favored by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Hafize Gaye Erkan, Turkey's central bank governor. 

Erkan has some momentum going into the event. Turkey's dollar debt is trading at levels last seen two years ago, after Gulf investors pledged investments totaling more than $50 billion. Five-year credit default swaps are down by more than 250 basis points since May's presidential vote, and there are signs of improvement in the central bank's foreign-exchange reserves.

Still, there's another side to the Turkey story. The central bank has disappointed markets with both the interest rate decisions since Erkan took over — delivering a cumulative 900-basis-points hike — and many observers have said she's treading too cautiously. 

Also Read: Turkey Takes Alternative Tightening Path After Smaller Rate Hike

The current policy rate of 17.50% remains a far cry from annual inflation that's hovering close to 40%. Recent tax hikes to balance the budget and the lira's weakness will likely push consumer prices even higher, before monetary tightening starts slowing demand.

"The extent and complexity of macroeconomic and financial market distortions built up in recent years may partly explain the central bank's gradual approach," Fitch Ratings said after last week's 250-basis-points interest rate hike, which was smaller than what was anticipated by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. 

"However, in our view, continued political constraints, including President Erdogan's views on interest rates and the March 2024 local elections, may also limit the scope for a more decisive policy shift," Fitch said.

Also Read: Turkey Drains Record Amount of Liras to Tackle Oversupply

Chart of  the Week

Saudi Arabia is making riskier bets with its oil wealth to generate a higher return to offset possible declines in crude prices. Here are the domestic and global consequences

The Slant 

Western oil sanctions have achieved its objective of hurting Russia, halving its oil revenue from a year ago, at the unacknowledged cost of bolstering Iran and Venezuela. But the path forward is likely to get choppier, Javier Blas writes for Bloomberg Opinion. 

Need to Know 

Chasing 7% growth: The United Arab Emirates is looking to accelerate economic growth as it seeks to double its gross domestic product to over $800 billion by the end of the decade, Economy Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri said. 

Also Read: Dubai's Inflation Slows as Global Food and Energy Prices Ease

Boosting stakes: Canadian pension fund CDPQ is considering investing billions of dollars to increase its holdings in some of Dubai's most prized shipping and logistic assets.

Adnoc's revised offer: The Abu Dhabi energy giant boosted its takeover offer for Covestro to about $12.4 billion, hoping to convince the German chemicals firm to enter talks. 

"Unique perspective": BlackRock named Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser to its board, underscoring the asset manager's commitment to the oil industry amid a highly politicized debate about its role in ESG investing.

Amin Nasser, chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

Exploring IPOs: Dubai's Roads & Transport Authority has invited banks to pitch for roles on the planned initial public offerings of its taxis and parking businesses. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi-based edtech firm Alef Education is considering joining a number of private companies considering IPOs in the UAE. 

Regulatory hurdles: A consortium of Abu Dhabi funds led by ADQ called off a planned deal to buy a controlling stake in Israeli financial services firm Phoenix Holdings.

Drone deal: Turkish arms maker Baykar, whose aircraft have been used in conflicts in Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Libya, agreed to supply Saudi Arabia with its most sophisticated high-altitude drones.

Also Read: Turkey Recasts 'Top Gun' to Give Its TV Soft Power a Harder Edge

EU accession still taboo: Foreign ministers of the European Union signaled their readiness to work for closer ties with Turkey, while resisting pressure from Ankara to join the bloc.

Iran tensions: The US is sending more troops to the Middle East as tensions continue to build after several encounters between American and Iranian vessels.

Coming Up 

  • Turkey inflation report: July 27
  • Turkey June trade balance: July 28
  • Saudi Arabia second-quarter GDP: July 31

Final Word 

Israel's parliament approved a bill that will reduce judges' ability to overrule government decisions and appointments.

The move is part of a wider plan by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition to limit the power of the judiciary. The opposition, which has 56 lawmakers to the coalition's 64, left the plenum in protest and was not present for the vote. That allowed the government to pass its bill 64 to zero.

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets in recent months, saying the overhaul threatens the country's economy and security. The largest anti-government protest movement in the nation's history is being steered by chief executives, PR gurus, and top lawyers. 

And Israel's first female attorney general is at the center of the heated fight.

Israel's Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. Photographer: Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP

Gali Baharav-Miara is hailed by one side as a bulwark of democracy for standing up to the prime minister, while derided by the other as exactly what's wrong with a system in need of fixing. 

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