Thursday, June 1, 2023

A new global challenger

The line of countries seeking to be part of BRICS tells its own story.

The BRICS group of emerging nations is accelerating its drive to become a serious economic and political force.

It's been a long time coming.

Dreamed up in 2001 as an acronym identifying the rapid growth of Brazil, Russia, India and China, it became a formal entity in 2009, with South Africa joining the following year. But it's consistently failed to punch its weight.

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Now, with Beijing locked in global rivalry with Washington and Moscow subject to international sanctions over its war on Ukraine, the group is weighing efforts to counter the dominance of the US and the European Union.

BRICS nations have already agreed to pool $100 billion of foreign currency, funds they can tap during emergencies, and founded their own bank that's approved more than $30 billion of loans for water, transportation and other infrastructure projects since 2015.

When the bloc's foreign ministers meet in Cape Town today, expansion of its membership and moves to establish a shared currency will be on the agenda. A summit of heads of state will be held in Johannesburg in late August.

Existing BRICS members represent more than 42% of the world's population and account for 23% of global gross domestic product. Some 19 other countries have expressed interest in joining, with Saudi Arabia among those that have formally applied, bolstering the BRICS' claim to a bigger seat at the global table.

But the plan carries risks.

It threatens to raise hackles in the US and among its allies, which are trying to build a united front against Moscow and hone a collective stance on Beijing.

The very makeup of the group presents another problem. Its current members already straddle a mix of governing systems and ideologies with widely divergent views.

The line of countries seeking to be part of BRICS tells its own story of a fracturing world. Yet any enlargement could complicate the bloc's ambitions to be a cohesive actor on the global stage.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the BRICS Summit in Xiamen, China, in 2017. Photographer: Kenzaburo Fukuhara/AFP/Getty Images

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Global Headlines

The US debt-limit deal won approval in the House of Representatives late yesterday and now heads to the Senate for consideration as a default deadline draws near. The bipartisan approval of the measure cements President Joe Biden's reputation for pragmatism as he seeks a second term and allows Republican Kevin McCarthy to claim success in his first major test as House speaker.

  • While McCarthy won over some conservatives, more Democrats backed the measure than those among the Republican majority, in a sign that the security of his job as speaker is in question.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has jolted the North Atlantic Treaty Organization awake, French President Emmanuel Macron said, almost four years after he branded the military alliance brain dead. In an about-face, Macron said he wanted EU member states to discuss deeper cooperation to acquire independent strike capabilities and guarantee their own security.

  • Sweden is hoping legislation that comes into force today punishing participation in any terrorist group will provide the necessary impetus for Turkey to approve its accession into NATO.

A lopsided trade relationship with India is forcing Russia to accumulate up to $1 billion each month in rupee assets that remain stranded outside the country, swelling a $147 billion stockpile of capital it's amassed abroad since the invasion of Ukraine. While Russia has emerged as a top supplier of oil to India over the past year, settling a greater share of trade in national currencies, imports from India are stagnating.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made an unannounced appearance today at a European summit in neighboring Moldova, on the same day that Russia rained more missiles down on Kyiv. At least three people were killed, including two children, and 14 injured in the strikes, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. It's the 19th Russian missile attack on the capital in the past month.

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Facing a sluggish post-pandemic recovery and outside investors wary of falling foul of US tensions, China is rolling out the red carpet for global business leaders. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon and Tesla's Elon Musk are among those who met separately with senior Communist party officials this week, while Nvidia's Jensen Huang is also expected in China, as Beijing seeks to allay fears the world's No. 2 economy is becoming hostile to foreign capital.

  • Musk, a prolific presence on Twitter and owner of the social media platform, didn't send any tweets while he was in China for his first visit since the pandemic.
  • The US and the EU are struggling to agree on specific ways to slow China's technological rise and limit what they regard as its coercive trade practices.

Explainers You Can Use

Brazil's lower house of congress approved a provisional measure establishing the structure of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's cabinet, a relief for the leftist leader whose government was nearly thrown into chaos. Lula called emergency meetings with political allies and lower house Speaker Arthur Lira to secure its passage yesterday. The measure still needs to go to the Senate for a vote before it expires today.

Tune in to Bloomberg TV's Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents Annmarie Hordern and Joe Mathieu. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note

  • China and Singapore agreed to work toward establishing a secure defense telephone link for high-level communications as they seek to bolster ties amid rising regional tensions.
  • Poland's president rejected criticism from the US and the EU over a law that would potentially put the country's opposition leader under investigation ahead of elections.
  • EU members are considering requiring that at least half of the critical raw materials the bloc needs are processed domestically in an effort to better prepare for the clean-energy transition.
  • US and Taiwanese security officials discussed how companies from the self-governing island could adopt key US defense supply chain standards at a rare meeting on American soil in April, a senior government official in Taipei said.
  • OPEC hasn't invited reporters from three major news organizations — Bloomberg News, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal — to cover the group's meetings this weekend in Vienna.

And finally … Soon after the Taliban retook Afghanistan in 2021, the then head of Pakistan's spy agency arrived at one of Kabul's plushest hotels, smiling, sipping tea and appearing at ease with the militants' return to power after clandestinely supporting their fight against US-led forces. Now, as Eltaf Najafizada and Ismail Dilawar report, relations between the Taliban and Pakistan have soured, terrorist attacks by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan have jumped and some Taliban leaders are even seeking to establish ties with Pakistan's archrival, India.

Damage after Taliban forces fired mortars at Pakistan's border town of Chaman in December 2022. Photographer: Abdul Basit/AFP/Getty Images

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