The Kremlin since Soviet times has often celebrated International Labor Day under the slogan of "Peace, Labor, May." The Foreign Ministry in Moscow did so again today on Twitter even as Russia marked the May 1 holiday by raining cruise missiles on cities in Ukraine. If the Orwellian double-think indicates President Vladimir Putin's approach to justifying his invasion, Russia's resumption of large-scale strikes at Ukrainian cities may reflect apprehension about Ukraine's looming counteroffensive. Ukraine claimed it shot down most of the Russian missiles, a measure of improved air defenses thanks to systems supplied by its US and European allies. That comes after a winter in which Russia systematically tried and failed to destroy Ukrainian energy infrastructure to break public morale. The battlefields are rapidly drying out following the spring thaw and both sides anticipate potentially decisive confrontations. Ukraine has trained thousands of troops and amassed tanks and other armor from its allies for the offensive, aiming to push Russian forces out of its eastern and southern territories. Russia made hardly any winter gains. In Bakhmut, where fighting has raged for months, the Wagner mercenary group leader has threatened to withdraw because of ammunition shortages. Success for Ukraine would swing momentum Kyiv's way in future peace talks. But failure would hand the advantage to Putin, particularly if the US and European election calendar indicates any public fatigue with the cost of aiding Ukraine. A ban on Ukrainian grain imports by Poland and other eastern European states last month amid anger among farmers over a collapse in prices underlines the pressures facing governments even in Ukraine's staunchest allies. Russia next marks the May 9 Victory Day holiday for the end of World War II with Putin presiding over a Red Square military parade. He has sought, however implausibly, to convince Russians they're facing a similarly epic struggle now. The risk facing Putin in the months ahead is that it's hard to appear victorious if Ukraine is forcing his military to retreat. |
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