Wednesday, May 31, 2023

New York subways have a deadly form of long Covid

Plus: France's flight ban, Biden's debt ceiling deal and more.

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an exhausted donkey pulling a rickety cart full of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

The Subway Shirt

One strange thing about living in New York is that I will voluntarily make a dinner reservation at 11:30 p.m. if it's the only time slot available. That may sound insane to you — most of my relatives think I am sick and twisted for eating past 8 p.m. But in the city that never sleeps, there's really no need to abide by the natural laws of circadian rhythms or whatever. And it's not just me: All the girlies are down for a late-night resy. Some restaurants will stay open until 4 a.m. because who wouldn't want to smash a steak au poivre at that hour? But as in any big city, going out late to indulge in soup dumplings or espresso martinis can be a dangerous endeavor. You need to stay safe. You need to be smart. Enter: The Subway Shirt.

This shirt is typically a loose-fitting garment — maybe an oversized button down or an extra-large ugly T-shirt. Women will throw them on over their going-out top or dress as a way to avoid potential harassers and creepy stares on the subway. Some call it an "outfit dampener." Others refer to it as a "man blocker." But no matter what you think of The Subway Shirt, there's no denying that it is a symptom of a larger issue: The subway does not feel particularly safe, especially at night with so few people riding it.

Whenever you go on the subway, you really never know what to expect. Sometimes it's very normal, with AirPodded people simply minding their own business. But other times, there's weird, unexplainable stuff that happens — like that man on my commute the other day who decided it was a good time to pick off two entire fingernails and get blood all over his pants. Justin Fox, being the good data Samaritan that he is, decided to dig into the numbers to see if New York City's underbelly is as unsafe as people think is. His findings are, well, mixed:

"Subway riders are not significantly more likely to be victims of crime than before the pandemic," Justin writes, which sounds like fantastic news for the Subway Shirt wearers and Birdie alarm carriers of the world. That is, until you realize that they're also "much more likely to be victims of senseless violence." Robberies may be down, but assault, rape and murder are wayyyyy up since 2019:

Justin's "less-than-scientific take is that there are more troubled people on New York's subways than before the pandemic, and less-crowded stations and cars have made it easier for them to make trouble." So, unfortunately, the subway is still pretty sketchy based on the nonzero possibility that you could be physically injured by a complete stranger. It's a sad reality that women in 2023 feel the need to cover up like a Nathaniel Hawthorne character. But if anyone makes fun of their puritanical fashion choices, now they have the data to back it up.

Shakes on a Plane

Okay, here's the thing about France. France would NEVER in a million years sell this milkshake:

No nation in good conscience should allow its citizens to gulp down 295% of their daily allotment of saturated fat in one sitting. But in the US, we will gladly offer up calorie counts that would make Emmanuel Macron weep. You see, we Américains are content to slowly kill ourselves, one large Oreo milkshake at a time — as long as it brings the boys to the yard. Which brings me to another unhealthy habit: Our flight patterns.

If we had Nutrition Facts for the sky, neither France nor the US would be looking all too healthy. But at least the French admit they have a problem: "In the name of cutting carbon emissions, France last week banned short-haul flights," Mark Gongloff writes. But there's just one tiny catch: "The ban applies to a whopping total of three routes, affecting just 3% of the country's mainland domestic flight emissions, by one estimate." It's merely "green window-dressing," like if Baskin Robbins were to remove the whipped cream from that milkshake and call it a health-conscious choice. Even if the US managed to craft a more robust short-haul flight ban — and get it past Congress — the alternatives to flying are a lot different than in France, which is veined with a vast network of fancy high-speed rails. America's train systems are arcane, "relying on bridges and tunnels built in the days when exhausted donkeys pulled rickety carts over and through them," Mark writes. Whether those donkeys were fueled by milkshakes is a discussion for another time. Read the whole thing.

Telltale Charts

Tonight is the night!!! Hopefully, if all goes according to plan, the House of Representatives will vote yes on Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy's debt ceiling dealio so that we can stop talking about it in this newsletter for *checks notes* at least another 500 days. The proposal itself leaves much to be desired, with Bloomberg's editorial board calling it "feeble." But still — it's better than nothing. "The country's long-term fiscal outlook remains dire … public debt will still be projected to keep rising to historically unprecedented levels as a proportion of gross domestic product," they write.

Is OpenAI CEO Sam Altman love-bombing us?? He got the world absolutely hooked on ChatGPT. We're using it in school. At work. In the kitchen. And now, Altman has the audacity tell reporters that if he can't comply with Europe's AI legislation, OpenAI would go *poof* into the night. He backtracked a little on that "cease operating" in Europe statement, but still: His aggressive push to sink ChatGPT's teeth into society and the subsequent threat to yank it out is textbook narcissism. "If this remarkable technology was suddenly switched off tomorrow, it would already have significant ramifications. The potential $15.7 trillion global economic boost, as estimated by McKinsey, would be slowed. The value of investments in AI, which have flooded in by the billions, would be thrown into question," Dave Lee argues.

Further Reading

How IMAX solved the return-to-office problem. — Conor Sen

The surprisingly durable labor market is an asset, not a liability. — Jonathan Levin

Insurers can't afford to ignore the risks from climate change. — David Fickling

Dear Wall Street, quant funds are not the villain you think they are. — Aaron Brown

Belgium, of all places, is coming to the rescue of US expats in tax hell. — Andreas Kluth

ICYMI

China is drilling.

Pence is running.

Location is sharing.

New Zealand Air is weighing.

Kickers

Bezos got bamboozled.

A swan got eaten by teens.

Gosling got GQ'd.

Notes: Please send milkshakes and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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