Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Balkan flashpoint

Tensions are rising in Kosovo, the powder keg of the Balkans.

Kosovo, the powder keg of the Balkans, is once again at risk of detonating.

The long-running dispute over the rights of Kosovo's Serb minority has spilled into violence, wrecking years of attempts to normalize ties between the ethnic-Albanian central government and Belgrade, which supports the Serbs.

Serbs clashed with NATO-led peacekeepers in northern Kosovo yesterday, injuring 30 Hungarian and Italian soldiers after pelting them with projectiles that included incendiary devices, according to the force, known as KFOR.

Key Reading:
Dozens of NATO Soldiers Hurt in Kosovo in Clash With Serbs
US, Allies Condemn Kosovo After Clash With Serb Protesters
Agonizing Over Ukraine, Europe Risks Stumbling Into Another War
How to Understand Rising Serbia-Kosovo Tensions

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said more than 50 Serbs were hurt. He put Serbia's army — which a NATO bombing campaign drove out of Kosovo in 1999 to end the last of the Yugoslav wars — on its highest level of alert and moved units closer to the border after the initial unrest on Friday.

The escalation essentially torpedoes US-backed, European Union-led negotiations aimed at fixing ties between Kosovo and Serbia, which refuses to accept its neighbor's 2008 declaration of independence.

The standoff has blocked progress for both nations toward joining the EU. It has also given Moscow, which backs Serbian efforts to prevent further international recognition of Kosovo, a continued foothold for political influence as Europe confronts Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

At the heart of the flareup is an April election that Kosovar Serbs — backed by Vucic — boycotted. The result was victory for ethnic-Albanian mayors that Serbs reject.

Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti then ignored warnings from the US and European countries to avoid stoking tensions and sent police to escort officials to their offices last week.

He argues Pristina has the right to govern all of Kosovo. The Serbs say he's reneged on a deal giving them more autonomy, and Vucic demanded today that the "fake mayors" be removed and police be withdrawn as "a condition for preserving peace."

For now, with both sides blaming the other, tensions are only rising, and the fuse is burning. 

KFOR and riot police face protesters yesterday in Zvecan, Kosovo. Source: AFP/Getty Images

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Global Headlines

Russia said it downed eight drones aimed at Moscow early today, the biggest attack on the capital since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine more than 15 months ago. The Defense Ministry in Moscow blamed the assault on Ukraine, adding that air defenses shot down five of the drones while electronic jamming was used to divert three others from their intended targets. Ukraine hasn't commented.

  • Kyiv faced its 17th Russian attack this month as Moscow intensified its bombing campaign before an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The White House and Republican congressional leaders geared up lobbying campaigns to win approval of a deal to avert a US default. With defense hawks, environmentalists, and conservative hard-liners condemning the concessions made, President Joe Biden is personally calling lawmakers to support the bill. Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy expressed confidence they'd muster the necessary votes.

So far this year, cyclones have battered the coasts, floods have killed hundreds and the worst drought in four decades has parched crops in Africa. Record temperatures are scorching Southeast Asia, while Cyclone Mocha ripped through Bangladesh and Myanmar, and agricultural regions have dried up in Argentina. While tragic on a human scale, those events are also expensive for the nations they hit, underscoring the growing economic burden climate change is imposing on the developing world.

After a crushing defeat for his Socialist party in regional voting Sunday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez unexpectedly called a snap general election. As Alonso Soto writes, Sanchez is betting that he can exploit the country's fractured political landscape to forge a coalition that allows him to hold on to power after the July 23 ballot.

  • Read how the chaos in Spanish politics couldn't come at a worse time for the EU.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

China declined a US request for the countries' defense chiefs to meet this week, Beijing's latest rebuff of the Biden administration's efforts to restore ties with key officials amid heightened tensions. The US had proposed that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meet his counterpart Li Shangfu in Singapore during the Shangri-La Dialogue. The US Defense Department called the refusal a "concerning unwillingness" to engage in military discussions.

Explainers You Can Use

Investors have bemoaned President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's maverick approach to managing Turkey's finances, underpinned by his belief that the only way to tackle inflation is to cut borrowing costs and expand the economy. After winning Sunday's runoff vote, the key question for the outside world is whether Erdogan will shift toward policies more attuned with global economics and his NATO allies when announcing a new cabinet this week.

Tune in to Bloomberg TV's Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents Annmarie Hordern and Joe Mathieu. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note 

  • Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has been summoned by Pakistani authorities to face questioning over the outbreak of violence that followed his brief detention this month in which military buildings were attacked.
  • South Africa said it will provide diplomatic immunity to attendees of two BRICS nations meetings as it prepares to potentially host Putin, who's wanted by the International Criminal Court, at a summit in August.
  • Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hosts South American heads of state in Brasilia today, after he welcomed his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro, and called for an end to US sanctions on the oil producer.
  • The US and the EU condemned a new law that allows Poland's ruling party to probe opposition leader Donald Tusk, saying the legislation could be used to interfere with an election this year.
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to face a series of energy-policy clashes after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and her United Conservative Party retained control of Canada's top oil-producing province in an election yesterday.

And finally ... China's Shenzhou 16 mission blasted off from deep in the Gobi Desert today to send three astronauts to the Chinese space station. The launch marked the 11th crewed mission for China as it narrows the gap in a space race with the US, showcasing the program's rapid progress at a time when Washington is trying to thwart Beijing's development of sophisticated industries such as semiconductors. China plans to send astronauts to the moon by 2030.

Astronauts Gui Haichao, Zhu Yangzhu and Jing Haipeng at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center today. Photographer: Zhang Xuan/VCG/Getty Images 

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