Monday, April 17, 2023

Wong's Indo-Pacific warning

Here's what's been happening, Australia

Hi there, it's Georgie in sunny Sydney. Here's what you need to know today… 

Today's must-reads:
• Wong says no single power should dominate Indo-Pacific
• Melbourne is bigger than Sydney now, apparently
• RBA review will require some changes to legislation

What's happening now

No top dog. Indo-Pacific nations oppose having their futures "dictated by a single major power," Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Monday, as the region faces an intensifying struggle for influence between the US and China. Wong warned that strategic competition between the US and China needs to be managed "responsibly" and defended Australia's right to build up its military capabilities. 

New boundaries. Melbourne has quietly overtaken Sydney to become Australia's most populous city, thanks to a slight tweak to where a geographical boundary is drawn. The southern city overtook its harborside rival on a technicality thanks to government data that showed Melbourne was home to 4.88 million people in 2021 — 18,700 more than Sydney — following the inclusion of Melton.

RBA review. Jim Chalmers said an independent review of the Reserve Bank has made some recommendations that will require changes to how the institution operates. The treasurer said he's had some discussions with RBA Governor Philip Lowe about the contents of the review and before long he wants to speak to the opposition and possibly the cross bench as well. Over the weekend, Chalmers told Bloomberg TV in Washington that he hopes to release the findings soon.

What happened overnight

A mixed start. Australian equity futures are pointing lower after US stocks saw small moves as the possibility of further Fed policy tightening lifted Treasury yields and investors stayed on the sidelines amid bank earnings. Bonds fell and the dollar advanced against the entire G-10 basket. Oil and gold both retreated. Asian equity futures are mixed. 

Missile buy. Taiwan will buy up to 400 more US missiles intended to help repel a potential Chinese invasion. The purchase of Boeing-made land-launched Harpoon missiles is a first for the island, which has previously bought only the ship-based version. Meanwhile, the Dutch intelligence agency declared China the top threat to economic security. 

Pulling funds. Credit Suisse saw clients withdraw $4.4 billion from US and European funds since it agreed to be bought by rival UBS. The outflows underscore the challenge for the combined firm to retain clients, after UBS agreed to acquire its local rival in an emergency, government-backed takeover. 

What to watch

• CBA monthly household spending, 9 a.m. Sydney time
• RBA minutes of April policy meeting, 11:30 a.m

One more thing...

The ChatGPT hype may be justified. Two papers deployed the AI chatbot in market-relevant tasks — one in deciphering whether Fed statements were hawkish or dovish, and one in determining whether headlines were good or bad for a stock. It aced both tests, suggesting a potentially major step in the use of technology to turn reams of text into trading signals.

Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

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