Monday, April 3, 2023

To hike or not to hike?

Good morning, it's Matthew here. This is what you need to know to start your day.Today's must-reads:• Economists split on RBA rate decision•

Good morning, it's Matthew here. This is what you need to know to start your day.

Today's must-reads:
• Economists split on RBA rate decision
• Four-day working weeks to lure staff
• Sydney house prices climb

What's happening now

Will they, won't they? Economists are divided over whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates for an 11th consecutive meeting today or pause amid cooling economic momentum. Nineteen economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the RBA will stand pat at 3.6%, as do money markets, while 11 see a quarter-point hike to 3.85%. Meanwhile, the imminent review of the central bank is long overdue, writes Daniel Moss.

Four-day weeks. Australian companies are increasingly offering four-day working weeks in a bid to attract employees and undercut rivals in an environment of acute labor shortages. The share of job postings that mentioned a shorter working week jumped by 50% in early 2023 compared with its pre-pandemic average, according to global recruitment site Indeed Inc. It's still a small percentage of the total though.

Across the ditch. Signs of stress are emerging in New Zealand's housing market, with the number of people behind on loan repayments jumping as soaring interest rates bite. The nation's central bank is expected to raise its Official Cash Rate to 5% tomorrow — the highest level in 14 years.

Less stress. In Australia, meanwhile, house prices snapped 10 months of declines in March, led by a surge in the bellwether Sydney market. Prices in Sydney jumped 1.4%, followed by gains in Melbourne and Perth, resulting in a 0.8% increase for Australia's major cities.

What happened overnight

Oil headache. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized the decision by OPEC+ oil producers over the weekend to cut output, saying it was "unconstructive" and would add to the uncertainty overhanging global growth.

Markets. WTI and Brent jumped more than 6%, though Treasury yields fell after a gauge of US factory activity contracted by more than expected, tempering some inflation concerns. Equities nudged higher, with tech shares underperforming as Tesla dropped on disappointing delivery data. Gold rose and the dollar declined. Asian equity futures are mixed.

Crackdown. Chinese authorities warned the nation's top banking executives that the crackdown on the $60 trillion industry is far from over in a private meeting late Friday, just as they were about to announce the probe of the most senior state banker in nearly two decades.

Party wolf: Hollywood star Leonardo DiCaprio testified Monday at the trial of Grammy-winning rapper Pras Michel, where the actor discussed his party-fueled relationship with fugitive financier Jho Low, who underwrote the actor's 2013 smash movie, The Wolf of Wall Street. 

What to watch

All times Sydney

  • 14:30 RBA Cash Rate decision

One more thing...

(left to right): NASA astronauts Christina Hammock Koch, Reid Wiseman (seated), Victor Glover (standing), and Jeremy Hansen. Photographer: NASA

To the Moon: NASA named the first woman and person of color in a team of four astronauts to ride around the moon on the Artemis II mission. Christina Koch and Victor Glover will be joined by Canadian Jeremy Hansen and Reid Wiseman on the flight. Artemis II, which will perform a lunar flyby, is scheduled for next year. That will be followed by Artemis III, landing astronauts on the moon's surface, currently scheduled for 2025.

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