Thursday, April 20, 2023

Tesla’s bargains

Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg's newsletter on what's reshaping the auto world.Tesla has gone from assuring investors it wouldn't

Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg's newsletter on what's reshaping the auto world.

Musk Caves

Tesla has gone from assuring investors it wouldn't need to choose between growth and profitability, to acknowledging the need to sacrifice one for the other.

The complete change in tone has played out as quickly as Elon Musk has cut prices. Three months ago, Tesla said it expected to keep its automotive gross margin above 20% this year. After coming up short in the first quarter, largely due to discounting, it's marking down the cost of its vehicles further and signaling more to come.

"Pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here, versus a lower volume and higher margin" Musk said during Tesla's earnings call late Wednesday.

After years of making the case that analysts viewing the company as just another carmaker were mistaken, the billionaire made uncharacteristic comments about Tesla being subject to the same whims other manufacturers have been for decades.

"This is just the nature of the auto industry," Musk said of consumers being more hesitant to buy amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. "It goes through cycles."

He mostly demurred from answering three separate analysts' queries, responding each time with a lament that he could use a crystal ball.

Elon Musk. Photographer: Christian Marquardt - Pool/Getty Images

The "stormy weather" Musk predicted for roughly the next 12 months — and the moves he's making to batten down the hatches — is spooking investors in Tesla and its competitors.

The electric-car maker's shares traded down as much as 8.5% in early trading Thursday. Renault sank as much as 7.9% on fears it will be sucked into a price war. Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes also slumped.

"Getting into a cycle where the consumer is trained to wait for the incentive is never a great place to be in (and is a classic 'old-world' auto challenge)," wrote Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

Tesla reaped an unprecedented valuation from scaling electric vehicles faster than any incumbent car company, all while posting enviable profit margins. Keeping up all three — massive market cap, incessant growth and steady returns — is proving more difficult than Musk reckoned a short while ago.

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Illustration: Justin Metz for Bloomberg Businessweek

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