Crypto News: Spectacle north of the border

Hi, I'm Phil Aldrick, Bloomberg's senior economics reporter based in London. Here's today's Readout.

When in trouble, there's nothing like someone else's discomfort to improve your mood. No doubt Downing Street took comfort in the spectacle north of the border today.

Just hours before Humza Yousaf, the Scottish National Party's new leader was due to set out his governing agenda, a second party member was arrested under an ongoing investigation into the SNP's finances.

Humza Yousaf holds his maiden speech in the Scottish Parliament, in Edinburgh. Photographer: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Rishi Sunak can at least console himself there are no police involved in the parliamentary standards inquiry into his failure to declare a relevant interest. Moreover, the UK's economic and social challenges look petty compared with the daunting problems Yousaf faces, as my colleague Tom Rees writes.

Sunak was even handed today a record last held by one of his political heroes, Margaret Thatcher, though perhaps not one he wants to celebrate. More than 3 million days have been lost to strikes since June, the highest nine-month reading since Thatcher was in power, official jobs data showed.

Pay is also rising too fast to claim inflation is under control and higher interest rates are now clearly killing firms. Schadenfreude only ever offers fleeting relief.

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The stories you need to know about this evening

A Russian court rejected an appeal by WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich against his detention on allegations of espionage.
Racism and a lack of funding are major reasons why Black women are four times more likely to die in childbirth than their White counterparts in the UK, a new report found.
Nurseries have said that Jeremy Hunt's child care reform proposals won't work.
An accused FX fraudster went missing from his London trial.

The Bank of England's next interest rate decision may be three weeks away but the outcome will be all but settled by 7am tomorrow. Today's jobs data, which revealed wage growth that took everyone by surprise, and Wednesday morning's inflation figures are the last key economic releases that members of the monetary policy committee will see before making up their minds.

Goldman Sachs economist Ibrahim Quadri didn't need the inflation print. Following the shock 6.6% increase in annual earnings for the three months February, he scrapped his forecast for the MPC to hold rates on May 11. He's now pencilled in another quarter point increase to 4.5%.

Bloomberg economist Ana Andrade was out of the blocks earlier with the same switch and money markets doubled down on their forecast that the hikes won't end until rates reach 4.75%.

It'll take a big drop in inflation tomorrow to change much now, though anything's possible. Economists reckon consumer price inflation will dip from 10.4% in February to 9.8% in March but, at almost five times the 2% target, that's still uncomfortably high for the BOE.

The tricky balancing act between killing inflation and keeping the economy alive that the bank is trying to strike was plain to see in the official insolvency data. The number of firms in England and Wales that went bust in March hit a four-year high as higher interest rates took their toll.

The irony was that beneath the overshoot on pay (earnings growth was expected to fall from 6.5% to 6.2% but it rose instead and the previous reading was revised up to 6.6% for good measure,) there was evidence that labor market conditions are loosening.

Working age inactivity, which has rocketed since the pandemic as people dropped out of work, fell by 153,000 as the student bulge during Covid continued to reverse. More of the remaining inactive population now want a job, there were 47,000 fewer job vacancies and 169,000 people moved into employment.

Had it not been for sticky pay growth, the other developments might have taken some of the pressure off the BOE. Of course, that's small pickings for households facing a 3% fall in real wages.

Technology and a shifting culture have upended the standards of new relationship etiquette.

In the new era of divorce, STDs and Tinder, Helen Chandler-Wilde has a guide for how to navigate a second — or even third — chance to dip a toe into the dating scene.

Get ahead of the curve

Unified approach. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called on the EU to maintain a common position toward China.

Growth seen slowing. Investor allocation to equities relative to bonds has dropped to its lowest level since the global financial crisis, according to a Bank of America survey.

A broader mix. BlackRock strategists are ditching the 60/40 portfolio in favor of public and private investments.

Inspired by Disney. Amazon has cooked up a public-relations project called "Ratatouille" to boost its image in France.

Toughening up. Britain's energy suppliers face stricter rules on forcibly installing prepayment meters in consumers' homes after a political backlash.

Targeting Asia's ultra-wealthy. Deutsche Bank is aiming to double private-banking revenue from Asia in five years.

Indefinitely. The Group of Seven nations vowed to support Ukraine for "as long as it takes" in its fight against Russian forces.

$30,000

Bitcoin's 2023 rebound has stalled around this closely watched level, hampered by the latest US crypto crackdown.

One key story, every weekday

The complexities of the country's education boom are on show in cities like Bhopal. Photographer: Anindito Mukherjee/Bloomberg

Business is booming in India's $117 billion education industry and new colleges are popping up at breakneck speed. Yet, thousands of young Indians are finding themselves graduating with limited or no skills, undercutting the economy at a pivotal moment of growth.

Read The Big Take.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Phil on Twitter.