Wednesday, April 19, 2023

RBA revamp revealed

Good morning, it's Matt here in Melbourne. It's going to be a big day for the Reserve Bank of Australia, but first... Today's must-reads: •

Good morning, it's Matt here in Melbourne. It's going to be a big day for the Reserve Bank of Australia, but first...

Today's must-reads:
• Economy's chances of recession decline
• Why Australia is an M&A hotspot
• Atlassian embraces AI

What's happening now


Crunch time. Treasurer Jim Chalmers will release the findings of an independent review of the central bank later today, which was instigated following harsh criticism of the institution. He's expected to give in-principle support to all 51 recommendations, including the creation of two separate boards — one for monetary policy and the other for governance. The Treasurer and the RBA will hold separate press conferences today, with the central bank's at midday local time. Watch Bloomberg.com for updates.

Narrow path. Despite the criticism directed towards the RBA, Governor Philip Lowe may be successfully navigating the economy towards a soft landing. Australia's chances of a recession have declined to 35% from 40% last month, after the RBA paused its rate hikes at the last policy meeting, according to a Bloomberg survey. While inflation data due next week will be key to the outlook, markets are currently pricing the hiking cycle is all but done. 

M&A hotspot. JPMorgan's chief deal maker for Australia Kierin Deeming is one of the world's busiest bankers right now and says the country has become "disproportionately relevant to global M&A." Read that interview and more in our latest deals round-up

AI race. Atlassian Corp. will utilize OpenAI's generate artificial intelligence models to create new features for its workplace collaboration tools, the latest major firm to embrace the technology.  The new features are dubbed Atlassian Intelligence, co-Chief Executive Officer Mike Cannon-Brookes said in an interview. 

What happened overnight

Mixed start. Australian stock futures are pointing to a flat start after Wall Street halted a two-day advance as traders assessed another batch of corporate earnings. Tesla missed earnings estimates while IBM beat them. The US dollar rose with Treasury yields after UK inflation topped estimates, suggesting central banks have more work to do to get consumer cost pressures under control. 

Final holdout. Bank of Japan officials are wary of tweaking or scrapping their yield control stimulus at a policy meeting next week so soon after the banking crisis overseas clouded the outlook, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials instead see a need to keep their cap on government bond yields in place for now to support the economy while they wait for more progress toward achieving their stable inflation target.

Tesla discounts: Tesla Inc. has slashed the starting price of its top-selling vehicle by almost a third in just over three months. At $46,990, the cheapest available Model Y sport utility vehicle costs 29% less than it did in mid-January while its other high-volume car, the Model 3 sedan, can now be had for less than $40,000 for the first time in years. It's already hitting the company's bottom line

What to watch

  • RBA review press conferences expected between 11am and noon local time 
  • Australia 1Q business confidence data expected at 11:30am

One more thing...

For the first time, more than half of millennials in the US own a home.  The rest are finding it increasingly out of reach. It's been a slog to get there for the generation that came of age during the financial crisis though — by age 30, 42% of millennials owned their homes compared to 48% of Gen X and more than half of baby boomers. And those who are still renting are starting to think they'll never get there. In fact, nearly one in four millennials plans to rent forever, up from one in seven just three years earlier. 

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