Monday, April 3, 2023

OPEC+ shock waves

Also: Erdogan's Rivals, Dubai Costs Surge

OPEC+ abandoned previous assurances that the group would hold oil production steady with a surprise cut of more than 1 million barrels a day.

The sun sets beyond crude oil storage tanks at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg. 

The move risks stoking tensions with oil importers already grappling with surging consumer prices and muted economic growth. It may also push central banks around the world to keep interest rates higher for longer.

The White House called the cuts ill-advised. Relations between the US and OPEC+'s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, were already strained after President Joe Biden made an in-person appeal to keep oil supply steady last year. OPEC+ cut production anyway in October and Biden vowed unspecified "consequences" for Saudi Arabia.

Also Read:  $100 Oil to Tighter Markets — Here's What Analysts See After OPEC+ Shock Cut

Ultimately, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies may be prioritizing their own economic demands and multi-trillion-dollar spending plans, which hinge on high oil prices, over historic geopolitical ties.

Also Read: Oil Buyers Reel From OPEC+ Cuts as They Explore Alternatives

Oil prices hit a 15-month low in mid-March in response to the turmoil caused by the banking crisis, but prices had recovered by the end of the month. The oil producers' latest move suggests the recovery wasn't enough for them and they have their sights set on higher prices.

Also Read:  OPEC's Shock Cut Is a Capitulation to Oil's Drop — Opinion 

Chart of the Week

Saudi Aramco's twin oil refining deals will strengthen its hand in China, a battleground for the world's top producing nations, from Iran to Russia.

The Saudi state-owned giant's investments and ownership in Chinese refineries — and the nearly 700,000 barrels a day of crude it will supply — give the producer an edge over its competitors, which typically sell crude via yearly-reviewed contracts or on a spot basis.  

Also Read: Saudi Oil Billions Lure Neumann, Klein, Novogratz to Miami Beach

The Slant

At last, there's some good news from Yemen, Bobby Ghosh writes for Bloomberg Opinion. The United Nations is going forward with an operation to prevent a disastrous oil spill from a rusting tanker in the Red Sea.  

Need to Know 

Division of power: The ruler of the United Arab Emirates named his son crown prince of Abu Dhabi, effectively positioning him as the next in line in the major OPEC oil exporter, and elevated several powerful brothers.

Sheikh Khalid bin Mohamed bin Zayed. Photographer: David Mareuil/Pool/Getty Images

Four presidential candidates: Recep Tayyip Erdogan will face his main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu at general elections on May 14 alongside two other contenders. Meanwhile, in his latest financial appeal to voters before elections, the Turkish president promised another minimum wage hike in July.

Related Coverage 

Netanyahu's climbdown: After unprecedented strikes and protests, the Israeli prime minister delayed a controversial plan to weaken the judiciary. Meanwhile, investment in Israeli technology companies dropped to the lowest quarterly rate in nearly five years due to the protests and the global tech downturn.

'Missing' president: Tunisia's main opposition group urged the government to address growing speculation over President Kais Saied's health after he failed to make a public appearance in almost two weeks.

Jumbo rate hike: Egypt raised its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points, but bond investors say the central bank needs to do more to vanquish inflation and revive flagging financial market flows. 

Also Read: Egypt Pound Dips Further on Black Market Amid Devaluation Fears

5% growth: Bahrain's economy grew at the fastest pace since 2013 last year, fueled by an acceleration in non-oil growth. This year, the Gulf state's economy is seen growing by nearly 3%. 

BP-Adnoc natural gas JV: The two companies have offered to take Israel's NewMed Energy private in a deal worth around $2 billion. The move will deepen BP's presence in the eastern Mediterranean and mark Adnoc's first venture into the region, which has seen several major gas finds in the past 15 years.

Dubai or Abu Dhabi IPO: Emerging Markets Property Group, which operates classifieds websites Dubizzle and Bayut, popular with expatriates, is considering an initial public offering.

Saudi IPO rush: First Mills is planning an IPO on the Riyadh stock exchange that could value the company at as much as $1 billion

Also Read: Saudi Tech Firm Rasan Taps Morgan Stanley, Fransi for IPO

€1.4 billion stake sale: The Kuwait Investment Authority sold 20 million shares in Mercedes-Benz Group — roughly a quarter of its stake. The wealth fund has been a shareholder for almost 50 years.

Also Read: Ford's First Electric Vehicles for Gulf Region Coming Next Year

Coming Up

  • Saudi Arabia March PMI: April 4
  • Egypt March PMI: April 4
  • UAE March PMI: April 5
  • Al Ansari trading debut in Dubai: April 6

Qatar Economic Forum: On May 23-25, join global business leaders, policy experts, and emerging voices from finance, technology, media, and sports in identifying the latest trends set to drive resilient economic growth and optimism into the next decade. Speakers include executives from The Boeing Company, Kuwait Investment Authority, and Syngenta Group. Learn more about joining this global convening virtually or in person here.

Final Word

An influx of wealthy Russians, crypto millionaires and bankers are making Dubai feel like a playground for the super-rich, and pricing out many of the expats the emirate once coveted. 

Residential skyscraper buildings beyond luxury villas on the waterfront of the Palm Jumeirah in Dubai. Photographer: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg

Rents are skyrocketing, fees for the private schools that are mandatory for expatriate children are surging, a supermarket trip can be more expensive than in London, and an Uber ride at rush hour can set one back as much as a New York taxi. 

Squeezed families are downsizing, relocating to remote areas, or eying opportunities in markets like neighboring Saudi Arabia. 

"The nature of Dubai is changing," said Metin Mitchell, founder of a C-suite executive recruitment firm working in the region for decades. "This is becoming a super dynamic economy again, but it's also becoming more of a Monaco, servicing the needs of affluent and high-net-worth people."

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