Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Next Africa: Proxy war in Sudan

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.The battle in Sudan risks becomi

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.

The battle in Sudan risks becoming a proxy war, dragging in neighboring states and world powers. 

That would be in nobody's interest. 

There was intense fighting around the army headquarters on Tuesday, with focus moving from the airport after a night of sporadic gunfire and explosions.

Smoke billows above residential buildings in Khartoum. Source: AFP/Getty Images

The conflict has torn up plans to return to civilian rule as Sudan's army led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan battles the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti.

It threatens nearby states like South Sudan which exports oil through its northern neighbor, and the interests of Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 

War would disrupt Russian mercenary group Wagner's gold operations, plans by UAE companies to construct ports and China's investments in Sudan, including more than $6 billion in loans. Refugees could flee across borders.

"It's a country whose crisis will not be contained within," said Murithi Mutiga, program director for Africa at International Crisis Group. "You need a cease-fire quickly or you are staring at civil war."

Both sides have backers. Egypt's military carried out exercises with Sudanese forces earlier this month. Separately, both countries oppose an Ethiopian dam on a Nile tributary and Egypt threatened military action against.

The UAE sees Hemedti as a bulwark against Sudanese Islamists and his forces have fought alongside Wagner and the army of neighboring Central African Republic against rebels. They've won favor with UAE and Saudi Arabia by battling those nations' opponents in Yemen.

But Sudan is vast and in a troubled neighborhood, with Ethiopia emerging from a devastating civil war and Libya wracked by conflict. There's little appetite for prolonged conflict.

"There are people who would be concerned to see the RSF lose but no one wants to see the armed forces collapse," Mutiga said.

— Mohammed AlaminAntony Sguazzin

News Roundup

Exxon Mobil units in Nigeria declared force majeure on oil loadings from multiple terminals in the country following industrial action. Three units of the US major declared the step, which allows them to skip contractual obligations due to events outside of their control. Exxon is among the largest oil producers in Nigeria, pumping more than a fifth of the country's barrels last year.

Discontent in Liberia over soaring food prices and shortages of basic goods is posing a threat to President George Weah ahead of his bid for reelection later this year. Weah, named the world footballer of the year in 1995, is seeking a second six-year term against a backdrop of a cost-of-living crisis that has seen thousands take to the streets of the West African nation in protest.

Weah. Photographer: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images

Japan's government invited the African Union to the forthcoming G7 summit and excluded regular attendee South Africa. Comoros President Azali Assoumani, the current chairman of the continental body, is expected to represent Africa at the talks in Hiroshima, May 19-21. The African Union, made up of 55 member states, has sought to become a permanent member of the Group of 20 wealthy nations, and in December received backing from US President Joe Biden.

Kenya launched its first ever operational earth observation satellite, becoming the latest African nation to achieve the milestone in the continent's nascent space industry. The nanosatellite dubbed Taifa-1 was among the dozens of spacecraft carried by SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket that lifted off on Saturday from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The space industry in Africa is slowly gaining traction with the help of new technologies.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying 51 satellites, including the Taifa-1, takes off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in the US.

A cargo of Russian crude oil is being switched between tankers to the north of the Cape Verde islands in the Atlantic ocean, suggesting new locations are being sought for an activity that has caused concern among regulators. A vessel called the Volans began switching its cargo of about 730,000 barrels of Russia's flagship Urals grade onto a giant supertanker called the Scorpius on Saturday, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chart of the Week

South Africa's state-owned utility Eskom will have received close to half a trillion rand in state support almost two decades since it started imposing debilitating nationwide blackouts in 2008. The series of cash injections and a planned takeover of a portion of Eskom's loan portfolio will amount to about $27.3 billion in the fiscal year through March 2026. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in your inbox with the next edition. Send any feedback to us at dmalingha@bloomberg.net.

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