Monday, April 17, 2023

Deadly power struggle

Sudan's two most powerful military figures are fighting for control.

Four years after a popular revolt that ousted dictator Omar al-Bashir inspired millions across Africa and the Arab world, Sudan has returned to form as one of the planet's worst-led nations.

Officially, the most violent clashes the capital, Khartoum, has seen are taking place between the armed forces and a militia group spawned from the notorious janjaweed gangs that spread terror across the western region of Darfur in the past two decades. These are the same groups that have united in blocking the long-desired transition to civilian rule.

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In reality, it's a power struggle between army boss Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and one-time camel trader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti in his guise as leader of the Rapid Support Forces militia.

The United Nations, the African Union, the US, Russia, and China have all called for a cease-fire, worried about the regional impact of a spreading conflict in Sudan, which has a strategic Red Sea coastline and mineral wealth. Particularly concerned will be Egypt, Sudan's northern neighbor, and the United Arab Emirates, which has played a mediating role in the past.

Even the mercenary Wagner Group, founded by an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has little interest in seeing violence threaten its gold mine operations.

But this is a nation that has suffered more coup attempts than any on mainland Africa, and where those in authority know few bounds. Bashir was indicted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes and genocide in Darfur and for a time provided a haven for Osama bin Laden.

Dozens of people have already died in the latest fighting. For those huddling in their homes listening to guns firing and warplanes roaring overhead, the denials by both sides that they started the conflict give little comfort.

As Sudan's two most powerful military leaders battle to become the last strongman standing, their violent contest for supremacy risks sending ripples far beyond the country's borders. 

WATCH: Heavy fighting rages in Khartoum. Souce: Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

China focus | Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven nations meeting in Japan have China high on their agenda. The top diplomats will compare notes from recent trips to Beijing while seeking to find a common approach to China on issues like Taiwan, economic coercion and US moves to restrict Chinese access to advanced technology like computer chips, Iain Marlow reports.

Strengthening relations | Putin praised Russian and Chinese military ties at a Kremlin meeting with China's defense minister yesterday. Li Shangfu, who's also due to meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, told Putin that Beijing was willing to boost "multilateral coordination and cooperation," China Central Television reported. The US has warned China against providing lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

  • Russia sentenced a prominent Putin critic, Vladimir Kara-Murza, to 25 years in prison in the harshest sentence yet handed down to an opposition activist. 
  • Click here for our rolling coverage of the war in Ukraine.

The world is becoming awash with natural gas, pushing prices lower and creating an overabundance of the fuel in both Europe and Asia — at least for the next few weeks. The trend has been a rare sight over the past year since Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended energy markets and Europe rushed to secure as many alternative supply sources as possible.

Unclear timing | Before this weekend's assassination attempt, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's improving political fortunes prompted speculation he'd call early national elections. That added uncertainty to bets on when new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda might start tightening the nation's ultra-easy monetary policy. The question now is whether Kishida can keep up the positive momentum after the attack.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Hitting back | A political group aligned with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis launched video attack ads against Donald Trump, ratcheting up hostilities between the rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The barrage suggests a more aggressive response from the DeSantis team to the former US president's withering criticism of their candidate.

  • Trump has raised $15.4 million in the days since his unprecedented indictment by a Manhattan prosecutor, his campaign said, thanks to a surge of support from small-dollar donors.

Explainers You Can Use

Clashes ahead | President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was changed by the attempted insurrection of Jan. 8 on Brazil's capital by supporters of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. As Simone Iglesias reports, conversations with those close to him show a more combative Lula determined to deliver his agenda and no longer willing to seek compromise or unity. That approach risks stoking political volatility at a time when the economy is slowing.

Tune in to Bloomberg TV's Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents Annmarie Hordern and Joe Mathieu. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note

  • Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Indo-Pacific nations oppose having their future "dictated by a single major power," as the region faces an intensifying struggle for influence between the US and China.
  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the strength of Israel's democracy after Moody's lowered the country's credit outlook on a planned judicial overhaul that has spurred mass protests.
  • Myanmar's military rulers announced the release of more than 3,000 prisoners, including 98 foreigners, in a holiday amnesty, a week after the junta carried out one of the deadliest air strikes since it seized power.
  • Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems Inc. are accelerating settlement talks on the eve of the trial in the voting-machine maker's $1.6 billion defamation suit against the conservative news network, sources say.
  • SpaceX plans to launch its massive deep-space rocket Starship today in the first major test of the new system, a critical milestone in CEO Elon Musk's quest to take humans to Mars.

Thanks to the 40 people who answered our Friday quiz and congratulations to Jay Caesar Villaroman, who was the first to name Kenya as the country where a flood of money from global sporting brands has fueled a spike in cases of alleged domestic abuse, violence and property theft involving female athletes.

And finally ... China demonstrated a new weapon to quell protests: an electromagnetic gun that fires projectiles shaped like coins. Manufactured by China North Industries Group, the weapon is intended to reduce the chances that people are killed when the authorities attempt to put down riots, much like rubber bullets. Beijing faced the most widespread protests in decades in late 2022 over discontent with harsh rules to curb the spread of Covid-19.

The coilgun China unveiled on state media to break up riots. Source: CCTV

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