Thursday, April 20, 2023

5 things to start your day

Good morning. More hawkish talk by Fed officials, Sunak delays decision on his top deputy and Biden may be about to seek reelection. Here's

Good morning. More hawkish talk by Fed officials, Sunak delays decision on his top deputy and Biden may be about to seek reelection. Here's what people are talking about. 

Another Hike

Federal Reserve officials backed another interest-rate increase as they monitor economic fallout from bank strains, while fresh emergency loan data showed financial stress continues to linger. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, typically among the more hawkish of policymakers, said she favored getting rates above 5% because inflation was still too high. Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker had a similar message. Meanwhile, data from the Fed show that lenders increased emergency borrowings from the US central bank for the first time in five weeks.

Raab Awaits Verdict

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is weighing a critical decision on the fate of his top deputy, taking longer than expected to respond to the conclusion of an independent investigation into bullying allegations against Dominic Raab. Hours after receiving an investigation's findings by employment lawyer Adam Tolley into civil servants' complaints Thursday, Sunak had rendered no verdict. Raab has been the subject of multiple formal complaints about his allegedly abrasive treatment of civil servants, which led Sunak to commission an independent investigation in November. An announcement by Sunak was now expected to come Friday.

Second Term?

US President Joe Biden is looking at formally launching his reelection campaign as early as next week, setting up a potential rematch with Donald Trump. Biden's aides have planned for the possibility of making a video announcement to coincide with the anniversary of his previous campaign launch, according to people familiar. The Washington Post earlier reported the development and the White House declined to comment. Biden has long signaled he intends to seek a second term next year, making it something of an open secret while holding open the possibility that circumstances could change.

Shrinking Fast

It has been a tumultuous 24 hours for Elon Musk. Tesla disappointed investors with its first-quarter results, sending the electric-car maker's shares down 9.75% on Thursday. An experimental Starship rocket designed by SpaceX achieved liftoff only to explode about four minutes later. And on Twitter, many users lost their legacy blue checkmarks for choosing not to pay $8 per month for the privilege. Tesla's sinking share price had the most immediate consequences to his wealth, which dropped by $12.6 billion as a result, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, his biggest decline this year.

Coming Up…

European shares are poised for a steady start as traders digest corporate results and soft US economic data. Norway's wealth fund publishes first-quarter results. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks. Data include UK retail sales and manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany and the eurozone. SAP, Investor AB and Sandvik are among companies set for earnings results.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

  • Starship explosion shows just how far SpaceX is from the moon
  • Biden aims to unveil China investment curbs with G-7 backing.
  • BOE official likens rate hawks to ``fool in the shower''.
  • Deepfakes are running rampant as tools to detect them lag behind.
  • Nord Stream explosion remains an unsolved mystery gripping Europe.
  • Credit Suisse AT1 bond write-off hands $1 billion loss to Japan investors.
  • Gold heist at Canada's biggest airport is probed by police.

And finally, here's what Eddie is interested in this morning

In London, customers are flocking to Harrods, a high-end department store. In China, L'Oréal can't keep up with demand as more consumers decide they're worth it. Sales at the cosmetic maker jumped 13% on a like-for-like basis, above the analyst target of 8.1%.

It seems the shift to luxury in the post-pandemic world is a trend, not a fad. In an echo of the Europe supply-chain story, L'Oréal said China sales would have been higher if not for a lack of merchandise to meet demand at the beginning of the year. And it's a similar story at other high-end brands. Results at LVMH and Hermes were equally sparkling.

That demand in China is hot isn't a surprise. It's long been clear that the urge to splurge when lockdown restrictions were lifted is universal. What's more surprising is how enduring that drive has been in Europe and the US.

Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor of the Markets Live blog on the Bloomberg Terminal, based in London. Follow him on Twitter at @EdVanDerWalt.

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