Monday, April 3, 2023

10 companies to watch this quarter

Hong Kong Exchanges, Skechers and more

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Must-Reads

After our list of 50 Companies to Watch in January, we're back with 10 specifically for the second quarter based on scenarios from Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. The companies in the spotlight span sectors and regions and are part of a larger group of high-confidence Focus Ideas identified by BI analysts. Each scenario outlines important catalysts in the next few months that support our case.

For a taste of the whole list, please enjoy … in no particular order … four of the 10 companies to watch.

Capgemini

Europe's biggest IT services provider is well positioned to help companies navigate strategic transformations in areas such as the cloud and digital, and it has less exposure to more cyclically exposed segments like telecom, media and technology (TMT), or finance. Its record order backlog in the fourth quarter informed BI's expectation of a 2023 revenue boost exceeding 10%, far better than the consensus view of 5% and management's guidance for 4% to 7%.

Triggers

  • First-quarter sales released in May should show robust growth, spurring management to raise the full-year guidance. —Tamlin Bason

***

Hong Kong Exchanges

As one of Asia's leading exchanges, HKEX is poised to benefit from tailwinds the analyst consensus doesn't seem to fully appreciate. It operates with significant fund balances that are sensitive to rising interest rates, and BI's analysis points to a positive surprise in investment income. China's economic reopening should also propel a recovery this year in Hong Kong initial public offerings—a high-margin business for HKEX.

Triggers

  • In April, first-quarter results will likely showcase better investment income and a growing pipeline of IPOs.
  • Alibaba's planned spinoff of business units could create listing opportunities for HKEX, with additional details likely in coming months.—Sharnie Wong

***

Skechers

The maker of comfy sneakers is poised to deliver strong sales growth that exceeds analysts' expectations. Its investments in technology, including an e-commerce platform and loyalty program, and distribution success during the past few years are key to its bright outlook, according to BI. Its two-pronged in-store and digital sales approach and an expansion into new markets are poised to drive growth of more than 10% in BI's scenario for 2023.

Triggers

  • First-quarter results expected in late April will provide more insight into the outlook for improving sales trends through the year.
  • New distribution centers in India and Canada should come online by midyear, supporting further international growth.—Abigail Gilmartin

***

Vestas

As a global leader in wind turbines, the Danish company is poised to benefit from increased funding for greener energy projects on both sides of the Atlantic. And steel prices, a key cost, have fallen, improving Vestas's profit margin. As a result, BI's scenario analysis points to about a 25% better operating profit in 2024 than the consensus expectation.

Triggers

  • First-quarter results due in May should showcase accelerating investment on wind farms in Europe, with the European Union's RePowerEU program, and in the US with the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • Monthly steel price trends during the second quarter are likely to remain lower than they were a year ago. —Rob Barnett

Read more: 10 Companies to Watch for Q2 2023

Go Away. Really.

Mansa Beach in Punta del Este, Uruguay. Photographer: Ana Ferreira/Bloomberg

Less than half of US workers use all of their vacation time. Here's what we're doing wrong—and why it matters.

ICYMI

John Wick: Chapter 3  Parabellum Source: Lionsgate

Can John Wick: Chapter 4's success make up for the $4.4 billion purchase by Lions Gate Entertainment Group of the Starz network? Even with a $138 million opening weekend haul, it's an uphill battle, one that even John Wick might not be able to win. —Thomas Buckley

Volatile Coins

39%
That's the percentage Bitcoin has dropped so far in 2023. What happens when the "crypto tourists" go away?

Hibernation's Over

"Tech is actually more pro-cyclical and bottoms coincidently with the broader market in bear markets."
Michael Wilson
Morgan Stanley strategist
This is investor-speak for "the current bull run on tech is going to end." Read more of his thoughts on the market's trajectory

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