Thursday, March 2, 2023

Turbulence in Israel

A lot is going wrong in Israel right now.

Israelis block city highways as police fire stun grenades. Soldiers clash with Jewish settlers in the West Bank. An arch enemy in the Middle East seeks new arms.

Multiple crises are rocking Israel roughly two months into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's latest term. And things only seem to be getting worse.

Key reading:

Tens of thousands of Israelis are protesting a government plan to overhaul the judiciary that's deepened the divide between traditional, more religious Jews who mainly back the change and the secular professionals who see it as a threat to the Middle East's most developed economy and democracy.

The effects are being felt in markets. This week the cost of insuring Israeli debt against default rose to the highest since 2019 for five-year credit-default swaps, and the shekel is among the worst-performing emerging market currencies.

"Israel is on the brink of internal disintegration and severe social rift," Yuval Diskin, the former head of the domestic security agency, said at a demonstration this week, warning of the threat of civil war.

Also stirring concern is Israel's top foe Iran — itself battling unprecedented domestic protests. Israeli officials believe Tehran wants new air-defense systems from Russia that will narrow the window for any potential strike on its nuclear sites. Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium has already reached a record.

While no one is talking about an imminent attack, the rhetoric has escalated under Netanyahu. And any strike could trigger a regional conflagration affecting global oil supplies.

Closer to home, there are skirmishes between soldiers and settlers who have rampaged through Palestinian villages. There are also protests over the proposed judicial changes and escalating violence with Palestinians that threatens to increase with the coming holidays of Ramadan later this month and Passover in early April.

Sixty-two Palestinians have been killed by Israeli troops since the beginning of the year, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, alongside 14 Israelis.

Opposition lawmaker Efrat Rayten Marom summed up the feelings of many with her comment this week: "The country is in a dark age." 

Demonstrators outside Israel's parliament, Feb. 20. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Ammo run | The European Union is set to propose a three-track plan to provide Ukraine with much-needed ammunition. The proposal calls for immediate transfers from existing stocks or pending orders, as well as using joint procurement to bundle orders to armament makers, according to a document seen by Bloomberg.

  • China emphasized the need for Group of 20 diplomats to build off a consensus reached by leaders in Bali in November, signaling an effort to move beyond divisions over the war in Ukraine that has hampered cooperation on other pressing global issues.
  • Read our rolling coverage of the war in Ukraine here.
  • Listen to our Twitter Space conversation on the tension points bubbling as G-20 foreign ministers meet in India, including China-US frictions and the Russia-China relationship.

Rising stakes | China has pledged to invest an additional $1.9 billion in the country's biggest maker of memory chips. The scale of the investment suggests Beijing is again powering up spending on its beleaguered chip industry, which is struggling to circumvent US curbs on technology while grappling with slumping global demand.

  • China sent the most warplanes near Taiwan in nearly two months, as the US approved the sale of $619 million worth of arms to the democratically run island.

Inflation-pinched consumers are tired of paying more for food, soap and other branded goods, and those in Europe are leading a rebellion. They're cutting back in a way that has companies ranging from Ben & Jerry's owner Unilever to Lysol maker Reckitt Benckiser Group reporting declining sales as many shoppers turn to cheaper brands.

Key pick | President Joe Biden's choice for US Federal Reserve vice chair will signal where he stands on combating inflation — and whether he agrees with restive progressives worried the central bank's rate increases will lead to job losses and recession. While it's a familiar dilemma for Biden, the political stakes are higher this time ahead of an expected reelection bid.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Shattered dreams | Boris Johnson famously campaigned — and won power in the UK — on his pledge to "get Brexit done" and has harbored dreams of a comeback since he was forced to resign last year amid a succession of scandals. But now, as Kitty Donaldson reports, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's success in securing a new settlement for Northern Ireland that eases the most contentious part of the Brexit deal has scuppered any chance of Johnson returning to power.

Explainers you can use

Targeting migrants | Less than five years after Tunisia became the first Arab nation to criminalize racism, rights groups now accuse President Kais Saied of stoking xenophobia against Black Africans to deflect attention from a growing economic and political crisis. Hundreds of migrants are seeking to flee the country after an unprecedented wave of violence, arrests and evictions, activists say.

Protesters demonstrate against controversial remarks by the Tunisian president in Tunis on Feb. 25. Photographer: Fethi Belaid/AFP/Getty Images

Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with David Westin on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note

  • The Biden administration is set to release an aggressive new national cybersecurity strategy today that seeks to shift the blame from companies that get hacked to software manufacturers and device makers.
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party decided to begin coalition talks in Berlin with the Christian Democrats following their defeat in last month's election in the capital.
  • The EU is scrambling to salvage a plan to effectively ban new combustion-engine cars by 2035 after Germany and Italy threatened to block the agreement.
  • Vietnam's National Assembly elected a close ally of Communist Party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong as the next president after he ran an anti-graft crackdown to remove potential rivals and boost his influence over economic policy making.
  • A payout by Petroleo Brasileiro rewards investors who stuck with Brazil's state-controlled oil producer despite concerns about political intervention under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

And finally ... US rapper Pras Michél got entangled in one of the century's great financial scandals, mediated a high-stakes negotiation between global superpowers and was accused of major crimes. The ex-Fugees star's audience with a top Chinese security official was a flashpoint in one of the most unusual political influence campaigns in recent memory. Jason Leopold, Matthew Campbell and Anthony Cormier report on a wild tale of celebrity and political intrigue.

Michél Photographer: Marc Baptiste for Bloomberg Businessweek

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