Friday, March 31, 2023

Trump's next act

The Readout With Allegra Stratton.

Bloomberg has been crackling over the course of today with every aspect of Donald Trump's indictment.  

He's the first former president to be indicted, not to mention the first former president to be indicted while also campaigning to return to office. For a few weeks now, Trump has been dialing up anti-establishment anarchistic fury among his base (including the ominous echo of his call to arms in the days before the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — that there would be "potential death and destruction" to come.) But as Bloomberg's Mark Niquette puts it: 

"Donald Trump's indictment…breathes new life into his favorite campaign tactic — running as the aggrieved victim of a Democratic-run Deep State hellbent on keeping him and his supporters out of power. Just when Republicans were beginning to believe that Trump was vulnerable if he ran a campaign about all the people he believes are out to punish him, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg gave the one-term ex-president no reason to change his tune."

Donald Trump Photographer: Kevin Dietsch/UPI/Bloomberg

Trump himself has lost no time turning these wheels of justice into his own chariot back to office: He's called the indictment "political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history" with the arraignment just the latest effort by Democrats "to destroy the Make America Great Again movement...I believe this Witch Hunt will backfire massively on Joe Biden."

Is he going to pull it off? Here's Bloomberg's Patricia Hurtado and Greg Farrell on the state of the race: "Trump, 76, already has a clear lead among Republican voters over likely contenders for the nomination...DeSantis trails Trump in polls for the Republican nomination, but fares better than the former president in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup against Biden."

And even though it's unclear if Trump would do time if he was convicted, the article tells us neither criminal charges nor a conviction would disqualify him from running or even serving as president. In short, if you are a Trump election strategist, you will be taking today in your stride. 

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

Not a deal about tomorrow

Here's something the UK government will want to talk about — at last it has been accepted into a trade pact with several countries in Asia and the Pacific, including Japan and Australia. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is an agreement between 11 nations. As Ellen Milligan and Brendan Murray report, the government sees membership as a boost for both economic growth and geopolitical relations. 

The expectation is that this deal will bring in growth of £1.8 billion each year over the long-term, a figure that could rise if other countries join. It should also give the UK a role in setting regional trade rules over the coming decades, and a say over China's future accession to the bloc. 

There's no denying this is a boon for the UK — which has been struggling for success stories since leaving the EU. Much of it is about positioning, as Rishi Sunak called it: "Joining the CPTPP trade bloc puts the UK at the center of a dynamic and growing group of Pacific economies, as the first new nation and first European country to join." The more of these trade pacts struck individually, the harder to reverse Brexit becomes. 

But while this is a positive story today, it will not bring immediate rescue to the UK's struggling economy. "This is not a deal about tomorrow, it's a deal about the future," said Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch this morning. Laudably long-termist but is it enough in the context of dire growth projections and an economy which is, as the chairman of the OBR recently put it — 4% smaller since Brexit?£1.8 billion each year barely scratches at the surface of the £100 billion of lost output which Bloomberg's team says Brexit is costing the UK each year.

If all those figures are too miserable to start your weekend, here are some more positive figures from Ellen Milligan. The UK's National Living Wage will increase by 9.7% to £10.42 an hour, boosting the pay of millions of Britain's lowest paid workers in the face of double digit inflation.

"The high levels of inflation are felt more acutely by those on low pay who spend a higher proportion of their income on energy and food." said Bryan Sanderson, Chair of the Low Pay Commission, an independent body that advises the government on the minimum wage. "We remain confident that this increase is unlikely to have a detrimental impact."

Homeowners dropping six-figures on renovation

Because the property market is so rocky, partly due to rising interest rates, homeowners are having to do something radical just to make their money back when selling up, reports Helen Chandler-Wilde.

Instead of just touching up the paintwork in their properties, there are a growing number of people who are turning to renovation firms and staging companies to help sell in a choppy market.

What you need to know tomorrow

Get ahead of the curve

Energy cliff-edgeThousands of British businesses face sky-rocketing energy bills as government support comes to an end. 

Coping with extreme weather. The UK can learn from Bangladesh on adapting to the climate crisis, argues Lara Williams. 

Not a distraction. Defeating Russia is the best way for the West to defend Taiwan, writes Hal Brands. 

Holiday ruined by rain? Insurance company Sensible Weather is offering a weather guarantee for travelers — no claim paperwork required.

Quality, not quantity. Netflix is restructuring its film group to make fewer movies each year and centralize decision-making, the company said.

Good news. Pope Francis's health is "gradually improving" and he may be discharged in the next few days, the Vatican said.

The weak are getting found out in banking

One key story, every weekday

Jim O'Neill, former chief economist Goldman Sachs Group Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Former UK Conservative minister and Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill has a warning for the financial industry. He sits down with hosts David Merritt and Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg's In The City podcast to set out why he doesn't miss being in banking, and to explain what's happening in the industry right now.

You can listen on Apple podcasts or on Spotify

Allegra Stratton worked for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter.

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