Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Supply Lines: Clashing at the WTO

Russia's ambassador to the World Trade Organization is accusing Europe, the US and others of "blatantly" disregarding international trade ru

Russia's ambassador to the World Trade Organization is accusing Europe, the US and others of "blatantly" disregarding international trade rules.

During a WTO general council meeting in Geneva this week, Dmitry Lyakishev bemoaned the coalition's "illegal and unjustified" restrictions on Russia, according to a copy of his speech obtained by Bloomberg.

Lyakishev added that the crackdown has caused "enormous and irreparable damage to the global economy by provoking and aggravating global economic, energy and food crises."

In response, countries like the US and Ukraine countered that Russia's invasion was the primary reason for the turmoil in global markets — something they said could be resolved immediately if Moscow halted its hostilities.

Russia's complaints come a year after a group of the world's largest economies — including the US, the European Union, the UK and Japan — revoked Russia's fundamental WTO rights.

Read More: EU Hits Russia With More Sanctions One Year After Invasion

The countries cited Russia's invasion of Ukraine as justification for their decision to stop treating Russia as a most-favored-nation under WTO rules.

While Moscow no longer publishes detailed trade data, it's fair to say the restrictions have had a significant negative impact on Russia's economic trajectory.

In 2022, Russia's gross domestic product contracted by somewhere between 2.2% and 3.9% and may keep shrinking this year, according to data compiled by the European Council of the European Union.

Source: Kiel Trade Indicator

Many of Russia's banks and companies remain cut off from major international financial systems and some trade relationships, and there's evidence that the trade restrictions on key technologies have weakened Russia's ability to innovate in the future.

But that hasn't stopped Russia from getting key materials, and as the Ukraine war enters its second year, the US and EU are now planning to tighten the sanctions screws.

Information collected by the Geneva-based Trade Data Monitor indicates that some sanctioned goods — particularly advanced semiconductors — are being diverted to Russia through third countries, many of which abruptly changed their trading habits following the February 2022 invasion.

In some cases, the exports to Russia of technologies that could be used for military purposes in Ukraine have gone from effectively zero to millions of dollars.

Read More: How Russia Avoids Sanctions to Buy Key Chips for Its War

Kazakhstan provides a key example. Last year, the Central Asian nation exported $3.7 million worth of advanced semiconductors to Russia, up from a mere $12,000 worth the year before the war started.

The Russian economy is also staying connected to global goods trading system through companies like FESCO, the nation's largest private transportation and logistics company.

Late last year, FESCO said it expanded services between China and Russia by adding a deep-sea route, as well as a new intermodal service connecting China, South Korea and Japan. Its transportation group posted a 38% increase in sea trade through Far East ports in 2022 compared with a year earlier.

Additional Reading:

Bryce Baschuk in Geneva

Charted Territory

Weak Start to 2023 | US container imports dropped 20% during the first two months of the year, new figures showed, returning to more normal levels reached before the pandemic ignited almost three years of global shipping disruptions. The volume of inbound containers, measured in 20-foot equivalent units, totaled 3.8 million in January and February, down from 4.78 million in the first two months of 2022, according to data released Tuesday by Canada-based logistics company Descartes Systems Group. The latest reading is in line with 3.86 million in January-February of 2019.

Today's Must Reads

  • Culture probe | US federal accident investigators are opening a special investigation into Norfolk Southern's "organization and safety culture." Meanwhile, a union representing the company's employees in Ohio warned regulators that the railroad repeatedly disregarded its own safety rules for screening trains more than six months before February's toxic train derailment. And an NS conductor was killed Tuesday in a collision with a truck in Cleveland.
  • Regulatory revamp | President Xi Jinping unveiled the biggest overhaul of China's bureaucracy in decades, part of a sweeping push to make the economy more self-sufficient and resilient in the face of US efforts to prevent Beijing from obtaining advanced technology. 
  • Prime position | South American nations are stepping up efforts to propel themselves further down the electric-vehicle supply chain by leveraging their vast mineral wealth, expanding processing capacity, and targeting vehicle manufacturing.
  • Rekindle talks | Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will use his first visit to India this week to deepen business and defense ties with Asia's third-largest economy.
  • Formula vex | US lawmakers are trying to maneuver around strict trade policies, inflexible government-welfare programs and intense agency oversight to boost domestic production of infant formula and prevent a repeat of the 2022 supply shortage. 

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Rough start | Global container volume fell 9.9% in January, based on CTS data, with routes from Asia to North America leading the weakness, down 23%. Bloomberg Intelligence expects container rates will come under additional pressure since supply growth may outpace demand by 880 basis in 2023, according to Clarksons.
  • EU trademarks | Cheese companies in the US are scared they'll lose the ability to brand their products with terms like "parmesan," "asiago," and "havarti" as the European Union increasingly pushes for geographical indications, Bloomberg Government reports. 
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains. 
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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