Friday Big Thinking Charts
We've learned two big things this week: 1) sentient AI robots are coming a lot faster than previously thought and 2) UFO-flying aliens might already be here.
Will the sentient robots arrive in time to save us from the colonizing aliens? Or will we need the aliens to save us from the robots?
The fate of your investment portfolio undoubtedly hangs in the balance.
And yet, the market was moving this week mostly on one Fed governor saying the next rate hike should be 25 bips (Bostic) and another saying it should be 50 (Waller).
We may be thinking too small.
The hive mind of the market can't seem to envision a terminal fed funds rate below 5.25% or above 5.75%.
But history suggests that with unemployment this low and inflation this high, rates could easily go to 8 or 9%.
And an alternative reading of the data suggests we could already be in a recession that will send interest rates back below the Fed's target of 2%.
All of which is to say, the range of possible outcomes is far wider than the market seems to be accounting for.
That will make the next FOMC meeting (March 22) possibly the most consequential of this economic cycle.
Unless the robots and aliens get here first.
But unlike Stephen Hawking, I'd be bullish if they do.
I don't think the aliens will want to colonize us or that the robots will want to keep us as pets. We're neither interesting nor useful enough for either of them to bother.
(Note: You don't get to be a Blockworks newsletter writer without being equally expert in crypto, macro, AI, and aliens.)
More likely, aliens will show us how to build useful things, like fusion reactors out of space metals. And AI robots will show us how to do everything we already do 1000x better — bullish for risk assets.
Unless Stephen Hawking is smarter than me, in which case we could become collateral damage in an Aliens v. Robots battle royale — bearish for risk assets.
How should you play it? Let's check the charts to find out.
Why we need the robots:
No comments:
Post a Comment