Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Elephants in the room

The Group of 20 foreign ministers are meeting at a delicate time in global politics.

There will be several large, and delicate, elephants in the room in New Delhi today as Group of 20 foreign ministers kick off their meeting.

Unlike the Group of Seven developed nations, which are tightly bound in their stance against Russia over its war in Ukraine, the broader G-20 showcases all sorts of complications and awkwardness. For starters the G-20 still includes ... Russia.

Key reading:

But beyond that, the conflict in Ukraine has highlighted divides between advanced Western economies and nations that tend to get collectively lumped into the "Global South."

Countries including China and G-20 host India are clearly uncomfortable with big sanctions regimes in general, and they have continued to trade and do business with Russia. Nations in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America are also uneasy about the hardening global lines and the potential impact on their economies and debt, as well as food and energy supplies.

Still, the way the US and its allies have approached China and India has been sharply divergent. While China has been repeatedly called out — to the point that criticism might prove self-fulfilling in prompting Xi Jinping to throw his lot in even more with his "best friend" Russian President Vladimir Putin — India has escaped overt blame.

That's because India is seen as a useful partner in the increasingly complex global security landscape, especially in countering China's own rising clout.

India and China each seem to want to have it both ways. China has not specifically endorsed Putin for his war. But neither does it want to align with a US-backed agenda against him (notably, it's hosting a key Russian ally in Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko this week). India similarly.

The prospect that a consensus can be reached already faces headwinds: A meeting of G-20 finance ministers last weekend failed to produce a communique over an impasse on how to describe Russia's assault on Ukraine.

All those elements will be on display in New Delhi as a potential portent of what G-20 leaders may face when they sit down together come September. 

A view of the damage after attacks in Bakhmut, Ukraine, on Feb. 24. Photographer: Marek M. Berezowski/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Tune in to our Twitter Space conversation on what to expect from the G-20 foreign ministers meeting, including on China-US tensions and the Russia-China relationship, at 8am ET/1pm London. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up here.

Global Headlines

Extending reach | Xi moved to consolidate the Communist Party's hold over the world's second-biggest economy, touting plans for sweeping changes to China's bureaucracy and more influence within private companies. He said the party would roll out plans for "deepening structural reform" in the financial sector and boost control over science and technology, as well as "step up party-building work" in private businesses.

  • China's economy is showing signs of a stronger rebound after it abandoned Covid restrictions, with manufacturing posting its biggest improvement in more than a decade.

Nuclear reaction | Russian uranium deliveries to a new Chinese reactor are raising US concerns about the potential to produce weapons-grade plutonium, Jonathan Tirone reports. The CFR-600 fast-breeder reactor on Changbiao Island is one of the world's most closely watched nuclear installations, with US intelligence forecasting it could help Beijing increase its stockpile of warheads by as much as four-fold in the next 12 years.

  • Read how a satellite network used throughout Europe and by the Ukrainian military faced an unprecedented cyberattack as Putin began his invasion of Ukraine.

For all of Putin's upbeat talk of expecting "some growth" in the economy this year, Russian retail sales remain in a contraction more drawn out than during the pandemic. The downturn represents a "permanent drop" in living standards, similar to the impoverishment seen after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Powering up | The usually sleepy US Department of Commerce isn't a sought-after perch for those looking to make their mark in Washington. Jenny Leonard and Eric Martin report on how Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is injecting new energy into the role that under President Joe Biden has become more high profile and more politically perilous, overseeing a lot of what is China policy these days.

Coming Soon: Understand power in Washington through the lens of business, government and the economy. Find out how the worlds of money and politics intersect in the US capital. Sign up now for the new Bloomberg Washington newsletter, delivered Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

No letup | Even as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak basks in rare positive coverage following his Brexit deal with the European Union, the UK's economic and social malaise keeps intervening. Inflation in shops hit a record, while house prices fell at their steepest annual pace since 2012 last month. Meanwhile, treatment waiting times for cancer patients in England are at an all-time high.

Explainers you can use

Economic challenges | Bola Tinubu was declared the winner of Nigeria's presidential election, which was marred by glitches and delays in collating the results, prompting the two main opposition parties to boycott the process. The victory places him at the helm of Africa's biggest economy as it confronts a deepening fiscal crisis, acute shortages of local and foreign currency and gasoline, and widespread insecurity.

  • Check out our Next Africa special edition on the election. And if you enjoy the newsletter, you can sign up here.
Tinubu during celebrations at his campaign headquarters in Abuja.  Photographer: Kola Sulaimon/AFP/Getty Images

Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with David Westin on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note

  • FBI Director Christopher Wray said his department previously concluded that Covid-19 most likely originated from a "potential lab incident" in Wuhan, China, contradicting scientific claims that it emerged naturally like other outbreaks.
  • Israel was rocked by further protests against the government's planned judicial overhaul in the wake of increased violence in the West Bank, piling pressure on recently elected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
  • Hong Kong's cancellation of one of the world's longest mask mandates has produced little visible change among its residents, with most people appearing to wear face coverings in public today.
  • For the first time in about 25 years, China isn't a top three investment priority for most US firms, with geopolitical tensions and domestic economic issues driving businesses to focus elsewhere, the American Chamber of Commerce in China said.
  • The US Supreme Court's conservative majority cast doubt on Biden's plan to slash the student debt of more than 40 million people, imperiling one of his signature initiatives in a high-stakes showdown over presidential power.
  • Vietnam's Communist Party nominated a close ally of its chief Nguyen Phu Trong to take over the presidency, boosting his control over economic policy after an anti-graft crackdown that sidelined rivals.

And finally ... You can fly for hours above Gabon over a nearly unbroken stretch of textured green carpet — one of the world's largest intact rainforests that absorbs and stores millions of tons of Earth-warming, ozone-destroying carbon dioxide each year. Yet as Antony Sguazzin and Natasha White explain, in today's financial markets, Gabon's trees are worth more dead than alive, critical to the African nation's timber industry. Despite the billions pledged worldwide to fight climate change, little has been distributed as compensation for the global benefit that trees provide.

Logs awaiting shipment in 2022. Photographer: Guillem Sartorio/Bloomberg

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