Thursday, March 30, 2023

Brussels Edition: Debt anxiety

Some of Europe's foremost worriers about debt will determine the setup of the next Finnish government this weekend

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Some of Europe's foremost worriers about debt will determine the setup of the next Finnish government in an election focused on public finances. Despite boasting one of the world's highest credit ratings, and an overall burden comparable to Germany's, the extent of Finland's borrowing has become a battleground for voters who fret more on the matter than their European peers. Three main parties are neck-and-neck in polls heading into Sunday's vote. Prime Minister Sanna Marin's Social Democrats, who favor investing to spur growth as a debt-reduction strategy, are in third place. If that holds, the 37-year-old Marin is unlikely to continue leading the country's next cabinet, while National Coalition leader Petteri Orpo — a former finance minister — has the best chance to win the premiership.

Lyubov Pronina

Editor's note: The Brussels Edition will be taking a break and will return on Monday, April 17.

What's Happening

Beijing Shift | Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned the bloc to scale back the risks in dealing with an increasingly assertive China, rather than decouple completely in response to a new era of state security and control. Ahead of her trip to Beijing next week, she said the bloc is exploring a new instrument to control European investments abroad in critical sectors, as it seeks to strengthen its tools to deal with China.

NATO Growth | Turkey's parliament voted to approve Finland's membership in NATO, removing the final obstacle to the accession of Russia's Nordic neighbor into the defense alliance. It also highlights divisions inside the bloc as Turkey and Hungary remain opposed to Sweden's entry, with the timeline for the accession of the largest Nordic nation thrown in doubt.

Subsidies Watch | The US Treasury Department will release long-awaited guidance today on its climate law known as the Inflation Reduction Act. Though its key objective is to loosen China's lock on the global supply chain for electric cars, Europe will read through closely to see what effect it will have on its own industry and competitiveness.

Minerals Quest | The EU is seeking to clarify several issues with the US before signing an agreement on critical minerals designed to give EU companies access to some of the massive green subsidies offered in the US climate law. Among the small number of issues the EU wants cleared is the extent of critical minerals covered by the accords.

No Chips | Negotiators are closing in on an agreement to finalize the EU's €43 billion Chips Act, we're told. Most of the deal is complete. The only outstanding issue is where to get another €400 million that EU countries don't want taken from the bloc's research funds. The next meeting is not yet scheduled but could be mid-April in Strasbourg.

In Case You Missed It

Renewables Mismatch | EU negotiators agreed to boost renewables significantly by the end of the decade, but the devil remains in the detail. Europe's wind lobby warned that investment fell off a cliff last year at just the time it needed to rise to meet the bloc's goals. There was also a small carveout for nuclear-heavy countries.

Oil Flowing | Russia still relies on Western insurers to cover more than half of the tanker fleet to export oil, according to data we compiled, and the country's energy officials are voicing concerns about it. This dependence limits Moscow's ability to negotiate higher prices for its oil and could leave country's exports vulnerable if the G-7 decides to toughen the restrictions.

Probing Swaps | The European Securities and Markets Authority said it is scrutinizing the market for credit default swaps after recent trading activity amplified turmoil for banking stocks. The regulators are singling out a Deutsche Bank trade that they suspect fueled a global selloff. The contracts can be illiquid, so a single bet can trigger big moves.

Pay Gap | Europe's companies will have to come clean on gender pay gaps under new rules that would also ban them from asking applicants about salaries earned in previous jobs. The European Parliament yesterday voted to support a new directive that would oblige firms with at least 100 staff to disclose information that will make it easier to compare employee salaries. 

King's Speech | King Charles III waded into European politics, praising Germany's decision to reverse decades of defense policy by supplying Ukraine with weapons. He gave a speech to Bundestag lawmakers yesterday in German during his first state visit as monarch. Six months into his monarchy and over a month before his coronation, the king hadn't yet signaled whether he would follow in his mother's footsteps and eschew public political stances.

Chart of the Day

Spanish inflation plummeted as energy costs retreated, though persistent underlying price pressures underscored the dilemma for the ECB as it weighs how much to raise rates. March's headline reading came in at 3.1% — down from February's 6% and much lower than the 3.7% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. German inflation also eased significantly to 7.8%, though the result was more than the 7.5% estimate in the Bloomberg poll. The data offer a first taste of inflation in the euro zone this month, with numbers from the bloc itself due today.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 2:15 p.m. Competition chief Margrethe Vestager speaks at an Atlantic Council think tank event and at the American Bar Association. She also meets US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
  • European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte hold press conference in the Hague
  • Climate chief Frans Timmermans visits Romania for discussions
  • Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarcic in Lebanon

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