Thursday, March 30, 2023

A messy green day

The Readout With Allegra Stratton.

Keir Starmer and members of his shadow cabinet launched Labour's local election campaign today with a focus on the cost-of-living. As many councils are due to increase council tax by 5% on April 1, Starmer said he'd freeze rates this year if he were PM. And he'd pay for it through an increased windfall tax on energy firms.

Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

Starmer has compared this "tax cut for all" with the government's pensions reform announced in the budget — which he is dubbing a tax cut for the richest 1%. 

The Labour party has appeared to be treading on Tory territory recently, with an increased focus on crimebold rhetoric on NHS reform, and a tougher approach on immigration than you might have seen under previous administrations. But today marks a return to traditional bread-and-butter Labour dividing lines on the economy: The Tories will always implement economic policies to protect their rich friends, whereas Labour wants to help everyone prosper.

The Conservatives on the other hand are trying to make these elections about local issues. If you're trying to predict what the future holds for UK politics, today should be a fairly good indicator ahead of polling day on May 4. 

Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here.

What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

Did the slingshot work?

If the UK is the David faced with two Goliaths in the form of the US and EU's green reforms, as the Readout said yesterday, then today we got the slingshot. Well, not the only "slingshot" —  since the Chancellor took to the pages of The Times this morning to say more details on energy security would be coming in the Autumn Statement.

It was an odd start to a rather messy day, as Bloomberg's Todd Gillespie captures in this piece. The subsidies announced in the government's 1,000 page new energy security strategy did not include the power station in the north of England owned by Drax — a company hanging on the government's every word waiting for a guarantee of support for its particular model of carbon capture and storage. The stock plunged 12%. By lunchtime the government had to clarify Drax would receive help after all, shooting its share price back up.

Cooling towers at Drax Power Station Photographer: Ian Forsyth/Bloomberg

It goes to the heart of the rather dogmatic difficulty the government finds itself in. Jeremy Hunt's Times piece saw forthright language on the US Inflation Reduction Act: "We're not going to go toe-to-toe with our friends and allies in some distortive global subsidy race." This bullishness comes from an apparent conviction the US is going to cut them in on a number of the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies currently favoring US manufacturers. But Drax is evidence that companies around the UK need intelligent support from their government — call it contract for difference or call it subsidy.  

Other than this, the main energy security strategy — called Powering Up Britain — was pretty familiar. Not much new money and mostly expediting existing ideas rather than seismically new elements. Former COP26 President Alok Sharma spoke for many when he said there was "no big bazooka." Opposition parties said it was a "rehash." Non-partisan experts I know think this plan will end up challenged in the courts too.

To be fair, it is important to clear the way for existing policy programs to work better — electric vehicles got the mandate which will require manufacturers to ratchet up EV production; the financial support for heat pumps will be extended and so on. It's also important to crack on with long-talked-about policy ambitions like £240 million for green hydrogen technology; or small nuclear reactors getting some oomph with the appointment of executives to Great British Nuclear. 

But the funding question still looms as Bloomberg's Will Mathis and Ellen Milligan write: "However, it's unclear how [GBN] will solve the most vexing problem for nuclear power in the UK, finding the billions of pounds needed up-front to build new plants."

The newer developments were speeding up the planning process for renewables. This came alongside more cash for home energy efficiency. Bloomberg's team report that for the various different sectors, this may not be enough:

"The details may disappoint both the renewable power industry and the fossil-fuel one — and environmental groups said it falls well short of what's needed to achieve the UK's ambition of eliminating carbon emissions by 2050. While permitting reform is a key ask for green energy developers, there's little by way of fresh funding and no sign that the government will budge on the terms or budget for an upcoming auction round to support new wind farms."

Some campaigners' fury was targeted at the government's £20 billion over 20 years for carbon capture. They worry it's business as usual for oil and gas companies. The projects selected for carbon capture include two projects under development from BP — one is Net Zero Teesside Power and another H2Teesside: "Both projects in the northeast will rely on offshore transportation and a storage network that would be operated by BP.

Now, many will look to the Autumn. The Tories have a point when they say they can't match the multibillion US spending, but they also should make sure they aren't giving themselves a pass on the smaller, but no less transformative, double digit billions that a muscular energy transition is going to require. 

Remote-work gap favors British cities

Major business, finance and tech centers like Manchester, Bristol and London continue to see a rise in work-from home jobs. In Edinburgh, nearly 30% of ads allow for flexible-working arrangements — a record.

But, as Irina Anghel reports, post-industrial parts of the UK are being left behind in the boom of remote-work opportunities sweeping British cities. The portion of remote-friendly vacancies in post-industrial or tourism-oriented towns such as Doncaster or Hull didn't reach 20% at any point since 2019, and has recently slipped to nearly single digits.

What you need to know tomorrow

Get ahead of the curve

Popular routesPrivate jet flights in Europe are surging, and these are the most travelled routes.

Green shoots. British businesses expect a return to growth in the next three months for the first time since shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Red-hot rental market. An American private equity firm has agreed to finance a roughly £300 million housing development in Birmingham, in the biggest ever UK build-to-rent funding deal outside of London.

A tougher stance? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned the bloc to scale back the risks in dealing with an increasingly assertive China.

Energy storage. The UK Infrastructure Bank plans to invest as much as £200 million to support power-storage technologies for the energy transition.

Loan to a friend. HSBC CEO Noel Quinn and other senior managers were accused of pressuring the bank's staff to loan millions of pounds to a friend's real estate firm.

The big number 

£21 billion
Amount of fraud against the UK taxpayer in the two years of the coronavirus pandemic, quadruple the period beforehand.

The next big threat to markets

One key story, every weekday

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters in Tokyo. Photographer: Kentaro Takahashi/Bloomberg

Japan's super-easy monetary policy sent a flood of domestic money overseas. Those days are drawing to a close, and investors all over the world are bracing for what comes next. 

Read The Big Take

Allegra Stratton worked for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor, Alok Sharma when he was COP26 President and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Your First Weekend Gold Trade Is Ready!

Ready to target $1,000 this weekend? To view this email as a web page, go  here. To view this email as a web page, go  here.            ...