Monday, March 6, 2023

5 things you need to know today

Tesla's EV price war takes its toll in China. Goldman recommends buying Apple after missing 300% rally. Atlassian cuts 500 jobs. Here's what

Tesla's EV price war takes its toll in China. Goldman recommends buying Apple after missing 300% rally. Atlassian cuts 500 jobs. Here's what you need to know today.

Price Cuts

A Tesla-inspired price war among electric vehicle makers in China is taking its toll on even the most resilient players, as evidenced by BYD's staggering $18 billion drop in the past month. The US-listed shares of the electric-vehicle maker that's backed by Warren Buffett have declined 14% since the start of February, underperforming Tesla's 9% advance. And Elon Musk isn't done with price cuts just yet. On Monday Tesla reduced US prices of its more expensive models for the second time this year — the Model S and X now start at $89,990 and $99,990, down a respective 5.3% and 9.1%.

Missing Out

Goldman Sachs is recommending buying Apple shares for the first time in nearly six years, after being mostly on the sidelines as the iPhone maker's stock soared. Apple has rallied more than 300% since the bank last had a buy-equivalent recommendation in 2017. Goldman's new price target of $199 implies 32% upside from the stock's last close. Meanwhile, Goldman is losing one of its star stock traders, who has been so successful that his pay has rivaled the more than $75 million awarded to CEO David Solomon during a three-year stock trading frenzy sparked by the pandemic.

Sluggish Stocks

Shares in Asia are poised for a muted open following listless trading on Wall Street, where stocks gave up most of their early gains to close little changed. Equity futures for Japan were slightly down while Hong Kong posted a modest gain, even as an index of US-traded shares of Chinese companies slid 1.7%. The lack of traction for equity markets shows many investors are concluding a recent rally was probably overdone. But Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, known for being one of Wall Street's most bearish strategists, said he's expecting stocks to rally in the short term.

Paralysing Fear

After a two-year crackdown on the private sector, Xi Jinping is trying to persuade China's entrepreneurs they can safely return to founding tech startups and rebuilding the country's economy. But it's a tough sell. Each time the Communist Party seems to ease its assault on private enterprise —  which started in 2020 with the silencing of billionaire Jack Ma and sweeping crackdowns on the real estate industry — it spreads to new sectors. In the latest sign of trouble, Bao Fan, the tech industry's star banker, disappeared. Our Big Take examines how Beijing's crackdown has sowed fear among China's tech bosses. Get the full story here.

500 Jobs Axed

Atlassian, which has headquarters in Sydney and San Francisco, will cut about 5% of its workforce — or 500 full-time employees — becoming the latest software company to eliminate jobs. A memo disclosed in a regulatory filing said the software company was "rebalancing the skills we require." It said it will incur about $70 million to $75 million in restructuring costs, primarily through the end of June, and that the cuts do not reflect Atlassian's financial performance.

  • Is the reopening trade over for the Chinese assets? Are the changes in Xi's government positive or negative for global markets? Will China's recovery be inflationary? Share your views in the latest MLIV Pulse survey here.

What we've been reading

And finally, here's what Garfield's interested in this morning

China's softer growth target at the National People's Congress disconcerted some investors who had been eager for the sort of stimulatory approach that a more ambitious goal could have signaled. However, the key dynamic that should remain of concern for anyone looking to put money into China was already known — President Xi Jinping's relentless push to exert ever greater control. The disappearance of Bao Fan, the Chinese tech industry's star banker, may matter more than anything that comes out of the NPC, because it reminds investors the state will trample over almost any business it deems necessary.

Sure, there's less talk these days of the country being uninvestable. But there are plenty of reasons to wonder whether the rewards will be worth the risks involved. And while past performance is no guarantee of future returns, recent history has been far kinder to the arguably safer assets on offer via developed-market equities, compared to both the broad emerging gauge and Chinese stocks. 

Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

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