Sunday, March 5, 2023

5 things to start your day

Good morning. Credit Suisse loses a major backer, China sets a modest growth target and a multi-billion-euro M&A battle brews over Telecom I

Good morning. Credit Suisse loses a major backer, China sets a modest growth target and a multi-billion-euro M&A battle brews over Telecom Italia's landline grid. Here's what people are talking about.

Credit Suisse

Harris Associates sold its entire stake in Credit Suisse ending ties with the firm after about two decades of ownership and piling further pressure on the troubled Swiss lender's leadership. The investment was exited over the past three to four months, said David Herro, chief investment officer for international equities at Harris Associates, in an email. Harris Associates was the biggest shareholder in Credit Suisse for many years, and halved its 10% holding toward the end of 2022 to 5%. The stock sank to a record low last week.

China Growth

China set a modest economic growth target of around 5% for the year, with the nation's top leaders avoiding any large stimulus to spur a consumer-driven recovery already underway, suggesting less of a growth boost to an ailing world economy. Premier Li Keqiang announced the goal for gross domestic product in his final report to the Communist Party-controlled parliament, which kicked off its annual meeting on Sunday. Economists had expected a more ambitious target of above 5% following a rebound in consumer spending and industrial output after the end of coronavirus restrictions.

Takeover Battle

Italy's state lender and Macquarie Group made an offer for Telecom Italia's landline network, setting up a multi-billion-euro takeover battle with KKR. In a statement late Sunday, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti said its board approved the bid for Telecom Italia's grid and its submarine cable business, Sparkle. No terms were given. The bid matches KKR's €20 billion ($22 billion) valuation for the network, but offers more in cash, people familiar with the matter said. CDP and Macquarie decided to go head to head with KKR after initially exploring a joint offer with the US investment firm, the people said.

Investment Restriction

The Biden administration is nearing completion of an executive order that would restrict investments by US companies in parts of the Chinese economy, including advanced technologies that could enhance China's military and intelligence capabilities, people familiar with the matter said. The effort is at an advanced stage, with President Joe Biden prepared to request funding for it in his March 9 fiscal 2024 budget, according to reports to Congress obtained by Bloomberg. The order would add to the administration's toolkit to address concern about China's technological advances.

Coming Up

European shares are headed for gains as traders assessed positive signs from the US against the weakened prospect of significant Chinese stimulus. Swiss National Bank publishes its 2022 results. The International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors meets in Vienna through Friday. Expected data include Euro area retail sales, Swiss inflation and UK car registrations. Helvetia and Pegasus are on the earnings docket.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours

  • Powell set to lay groundwork for higher rates on Capitol Hill.
  • UK less attractive than US, EU for investment, Shell chief says.
  • Adani stuffs power plant with $1 billion debt that won't go down.
  • A landmark UN treaty is poised to curb exploitation of the ocean.
  • Europe's surging inflation bets undercut Lagarde's rate campaign.
  • UK unveils £360 million science plan in pre-budget growth push.
  • Commodity traders saw $100 billion year as market boomed.

And finally, here's what Eddie is interested in this morning

The only thing that comes close to matching the market impact of inflation data these days is jobs numbers. And with the US set to release a slew of readings, culminating with non-farm payrolls on Friday, the stakes can't be higher.

Key issue, of course, is whether the underlying economy remains strong enough to stomach more rate hikes. And alongside that, whether inflation has taken hold in wage growth.

The fun, as always, starts with the release of JOLTS job openings and payrolls service provider ADP's reading on Wednesday, with weekly jobless claims following on Thursday, before rising to a crescendo in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reading on Friday, with nonfarm payrolls seen rising by 200,000 (after January's 517,000), and average hourly earnings seen steady at 0.3% on the month.

For markets, the second of these numbers is arguably a bigger deal, and an uptick will be taken as a signal that inflation is becoming more sticky, with a substantial uptick in volatility the outcome.

This commentary first ran on Markets Live on the Bloomberg Terminal, where Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor based in London. Follow him on Twitter at @EdVanDerWalt

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