Monday, February 6, 2023

What Adani's crisis means for net-zero India

By Stephen Stapczynski, Rajesh Kumar Singh and Rakesh SharmaThe crisis facing billionaire Gautam Adani is revealing a potential pitfall in I

By Stephen Stapczynski, Rajesh Kumar Singh and Rakesh Sharma

Adani's crisis points to big risk in India's net zero plan

The crisis facing billionaire Gautam Adani is revealing a potential pitfall in India's ambitious plan to reduce emissions: its reliance on the country's most affluent and powerful private citizens.

Led by Adani's $70 billion pledged investment in green energy infrastructure, India's tycoons have so far committed to spend far more than the government on the energy transition. Reliance Industries Ltd.'s Mukesh Ambani and JSW Group's Sajjan Jindal, along with energy giants like Tata Group, have also rushed to champion the shift to a cleaner future. 

But allegations from Hindenburg Research about companies linked to Adani Group have raised doubt on the firm's future, including its massive green energy investment. It's also created problems for Adani Green, the group's renewable energy arm. The storm engulfing Asia's now second-richest man also threatens to spread to the other conglomerates; Hindenburg Research has raised questions about the country's corporate governance.

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Because Adani group is a dominant player in India's clean energy industries, the pace of investment might slow, said Ashiwni Swain, fellow at New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research. "We cannot bank on two or three companies to reach our goals. We need a populated sector," he said. "There are other players and many more will join to take the journey forward."

India's national climate blueprint sets 2070 as a goal for net zero emissions, 10 years after China and two decades behind Europe. India will continue to expand its coal power fleet to alleviate energy shortages, prompting the government last month to defend its use of fossil fuels while in the same breath vowing to to remain committed to decarbonization.

To meet its goal, India requires investment of $160 billion annually through 2030, roughly triple today's levels, according to the International Energy Agency. Foreign direct investment, while growing, remains a fraction of current commitments. Adani's rapid downfall may undermine investor confidence in India more broadly, threatening to curb capital flows into the nation for green financing.

The gap highlights the government's dependence on its private sector to hit its green goals. While private capital will be needed to fight climate change all over the world, the sheer size of India's challenges makes it more reliant on its richest citizens and most sprawling companies. 

Executives have so far been happy to oblige, as the prize is a top-spot in the lucrative industries of tomorrow. Adani and Reliance's Ambani are vying to become the single biggest investor in India's green sector, with the billionaires constantly one-upping each other with fresh announcement of giant manufacturing plants and some of the world's largest projects.

Gautam Adani Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg

Adani, who made his billions on the back of his coal empire, positioned himself as one of the leading advocate for new and experimental green technology. He is planning enormous solar and wind manufacturing centers across the country, and developing a supply chain for the world's cheapest green hydrogen aimed at positioning India as an exporter of the clean fuel.

But some environmental advocates point out that Adani and his company were never that green to begin with. Adani doubled down on coal production last year as Modi promised to bring reliable electricity to more Indians amid a global fuel supply crunch. The group's mining operations account for at least 3% of global CO2 emissions from coal, according to SumOfUs, an activist group that runs campaigns intended to apply pressure to powerful corporations.

"India is lot more than Adani. Their role in India's energy transition is disputable," said Assaad Razzouk, chief executive officer of Singapore-based renewable firm Gurin Energy. "It is very dangerous to confuse the energy transition in India with one group's perspective or market power."

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Worth a listen

How do you become a climate minister at 26 years old? What's the key to avoiding burnout? And how is it working in a government supported by a party of climate skeptics? This week on Zero, Bloomberg Green's Akshat Rathi interviews Swedish climate minister Romina Pourmokhtari about her first 100 days in office and whether her government is still on track to meet its climate goals. Listen to the episode — and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or Google to get new episodes every Thursday.

Public spending

$4.3 billion
This is how much the Indian government has earmarked to invest in its energy security and green transition.

Game on

"We're on the cusp of a clean tech arms race."
David Victor
Professor of innovation and public policy at the University of California San Diego
The US's climate bill has opened up an unprecedented global competition to develop planet-saving technologies.

In other news

Livestock is responsible for roughly 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations. A lot of that is for human food, and some of that is for pet food. How much? One study, from 2020, found that the global production of pet food emits annual greenhouse gases on par with the Philippines. For a handful of startups including Yora, the solution is simple: Change what the world's pets are eating. Read more here.

Photo courtesy of Wild Earth
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