Friday, February 3, 2023

Supply Lines: Protein challenges

Protein is an essential part of the human diet, but the way it's produced is coming under heat.Beef, a big environmental culprit, is particu

Protein is an essential part of the human diet, but the way it's produced is coming under heat.

Beef, a big environmental culprit, is particularly under pressure. Consumers are cutting back amid the cost-of-living crisis and concerns over health, animal welfare and the planet. While much of that has been a trend in Europe for years, now some of the world's biggest beef eaters — like Argentina — are shifting to chicken or lentils. Gen Z is increasingly choosing chicken, not beef.

Even in meat-consuming giant China, pork demand has been savaged by Covid, while European producers are under pressure as their exports sink. Danish Crown, one of the world's top pork shippers, is shutting offices and cutting jobs. Another Danish butcher, Skare Meat Packers, has filed for bankruptcy proceedings. 

And elsewhere in the protein world, egg farmers are battling a bird flu outbreak and high feed costs.

Meatless alternatives have their problems, too. Investors are becoming less keen to back startups, sales have slipped and shares of Beyond Meat — the industry's poster child — have dropped. Rival Impossible Foods is reducing its workforce by a fifth. Price, taste and consumers' health concerns over the heavy processing of fake meat have loomed large.

As Deena Shanker shows in her Bloomberg Businessweek article, Beyond and Impossible overpromised and underdelivered, and plant-based produce may turn out to be a flop.

Not everyone agrees. Though there's a lot of snake oil in the sector and many companies will fail before hitting any milestones, the industry is working on improving taste and texture, and of course scaling, according to Brian Ruszczyk, the chief of Earth First Food Ventures.

"We remain very bullish," said Ruszczyk, who together with Milltrust Ventures has launched the Smart Protein Fund. "We think that our industry is no different than solar or renewables 20 years ago. There were many naysayers for solar panels."

A new generation of alternatives is on the way. If cultivated meat may already ring a bell, expect to hear more about precision fermentation, biomass fermentation and molecular farming. Even in the plant-based space, startups are working on improving fake burgers, steaks and sausages — revamping peas and soy so the food can be less processed. 

There are attempts to fix animal farming too. More climate solutions are emerging for cattle, from methane-suppressing feed additives to better manure handling. Regenerative farming is the buzzword. Dutch egg producer Kipster cuts emissions by replacing the fresh grains hens eat with leftovers that humans won't.

There's no silver bullet for protein's woes and much work is needed to clean up food's environmental footprint, but change is coming. 

Agnieszka de Sousa in London

Charted Territory

Food costsDomestic food-price inflation is still soaring, with people in low and middle-income countries particularly hard-hit, according to the World Bank. The most recently available monthly data between September and December 2022 shows rates of increase above 5% in almost all economies around the globe, irrespective of their level of income.

Today's Must Reads

  • Food rout | Global food costs capped their longest run of monthly declines in at least three decades, bucking soaring supermarket prices that are squeezing households.
  • Egg smuggling | Seizures of eggs at some US-Mexico border crossings have jumped more than 300% as surging prices spur smuggling. 
  • Cheaper dairy | Arla, the Danish maker of Lurpak butter, expects the cost of dairy products to fall sharply in 2023 in the UK after becoming a hot spot of inflation.
  • Grain flood | A group of EU countries urged the bloc to act to help alleviate the oversupply of grain as cheap imports from Ukraine flood markets in neighboring countries, cutting demand for local produce and triggering protests from farmers.
  • Lost fruit | Eight weeks of violent turmoil has cost Peru about $300 million in lost farm exports, the nation's agricultural association said.
  • African crops | The US is launching a new initiative to identify and invest in climate adaptation for Africa's most nutritious crops in a bid to deal with growing hunger on the continent.
  • Superbowl food | Football fans in the US can rejoice: Wings and guacamole are plentiful and affordable again.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Palm-oil demand | Palm-oil usage for food could revert to a slow growth phase, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. 
  • Farm bill | Bipartisan lawmakers in the House and Senate want to double funding in this year's farm bill for market access programs to boost US agricultural exports, Bloomberg Government reports.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • For FreightWaves content, click HERE. 
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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