Thursday, February 2, 2023

One hundred days

The first 100 days of Rishi Sunak's premiership in the UK hasn't gone according to plan.

One hundred days ago today, the UK's ruling Conservative Party — and the financial markets — breathed a deep sigh of relief when Rishi Sunak became prime minister.

After the chaotic whirlwind of Liz Truss, who became Britain's shortest-serving premier after sending markets into freefall with a series of unfunded tax cuts, he was seen as the person to get the government back on track.

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But the reality has been rather different, and far from the straightforward tenure his allies were hoping for.

After multiple scandals involving senior ministers, Sunak's now being compared to ex-Prime Minister John Major, who was swept out of office by Tony Blair's Labour Party in 1997 after endless news stories of Tory "sleaze."

That feels all too real for Conservative veterans who worry the public is getting fed up of Tory rule after 13 years.

With a general election due by January 2025 at the latest — and Keir Starmer's Labour around 20 points ahead in most national polls — the stakes couldn't be higher.

Public sentiment on the economy has barely shifted, while inflation remains sky-high. Anxious Tory MPs are demanding tax cuts just as Sunak tries to curb spending.

Wait times for emergency hospital treatment are at record levels. Meanwhile swaths of workers stage walkouts over pay, from nurses and teachers to train drivers and airport border staff. Polls show that voters are largely supportive of the strikes.

A deal to resolve the Brexit impasse in Northern Ireland could bring Sunak some much-needed respite.

But as his polling guru Isaac Levido told ministers last month: What Sunak's Tories most need is an extended period when they're seen to be governing well — without scandals or incompetence.

A protest in London yesterday. Photographer: Carlos Jasso/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Attack targets | Israeli warplanes bombed parts of the Gaza Strip today after a bloody month in which animosity between Palestinians and Israel has soared. Several explosions were reported while residents of Gaza City could hear the roar of fighter jets, an apparent response to the firing of two rockets from the enclave, which Hamas controls, into southern Israel. The militants fired anti-aircraft weapons at the Israeli jets, according to eyewitnesses.

  • Iran blamed Israel for a drone attack on an ammunition depot last weekend and said it has the right to respond.

Not improving | Two months after US President Joe Biden met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Bali with a promise to arrest a slide in ties, the world's biggest economies have been unable or unwilling to halt a cycle of suspicion and provocation. That makes for a tense environment when Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits China next week for the first high-level US encounter there since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

  • The US secured access to more Philippine military bases, clearing the way for a greater presence in the Asia-Pacific region as tensions persist with Beijing over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

It's been called a "carbon bomb" and a caribou killer. Now, climate activists have one final, brief window to quash ConocoPhillips's proposed $8 billion oil development in Alaska. In an unexpected twist, some opponents are quietly encouraging the US government to actually approve the project, but in such a scaled-back way it no longer makes economic sense. The Interior Department is set to issue its final ruling in about a month.

Adani uproar | Pandemonium broke out in India's parliament after the upper house chair rejected opposition demands for a debate on tycoon Gautam Adani's tussle with a US short seller and public investments in his companies whose losses threaten the savings of millions. Expected calls for an inquiry indicate Adani's woes could become a political test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who's seeking reelection next year.

  • The $108 billion wipeout in Adani group's stocks has started dragging down a broader range of assets tied to the world's fastest-growing major economy.
  • The Reserve Bank of India asked lenders for details of their exposure to the Adani group, sources say.

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Team visit | European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv with 15 commissioners ahead of a Ukraine-European Union summit tomorrow. "We are here together to show that the EU stands by Ukraine as firmly as ever," she said on Twitter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned Russia's attacks are intensifying as its invasion approaches the one-year mark on Feb. 24.

Explainers you can use

No discussion | North Korea said the door remains shut for talks with the US on winding down its atomic arsenal, as it pledged to respond to what it saw as threats from Washington. Foreign ministry statements are among North Korea's highest form of communication — Pyongyang test-launched two short-range ballistic missiles about a day after the last one in December.

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News to Note

  • Lawyers for Biden's son, Hunter Biden, asked federal and state prosecutors to investigate people he accused of accessing and disseminating personal data, and also threatened Fox News host Tucker Carlson with a defamation suit.
  • The EU needs to prolong measures to curb natural gas demand to ensure it can make it through next winter, especially in the event of a full cutoff of Russian supplies, according to the Bruegel think tank.

  • Malaysian anti-graft authorities have frozen the bank accounts of an opposition party led by former premier Muhyiddin Yassin amid an investigation that the pro-Malay group said was an attempt to destroy its credibility.

  • More than 13,500 Nigerians joined their communities in a lawsuit against Shell's holding company and its Nigerian unit over oil spills they say have devastated their land and waterways.

  • The US is beginning to seize imports of aluminum products suspected of being made through forced labor, particularly from China's Xinjiang region, according to one of the world's biggest shipping firms.

And finally ... Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says "extreme caution" is needed in giving same-sex marriage legal status amid calls in parliament to bring Japan into line with the rest of the Group of Seven democracies as it prepares to host a summit in May. Businesses say the lack of recognition for such unions stymies their ability to compete for global talent. Polls show older voters who tend to support Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party have been slower than younger Japanese to embrace LGBTQ rights.
 

A Tokyo Rainbow Pride parade in 2015. Photographer: Toru Yamanaka/AFP/Getty Images

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