Friday, February 3, 2023

Next Africa: Little to offer

Welcome to Next Africa, a weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.At the airport near Victoria Falls, Zi

Welcome to Next Africa, a weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.

At the airport near Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe's premier tourist attraction, traditional dancers leaped and a crowd clad in ruling party regalia sang on Wednesday. They were waiting for Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, whose jet sat on the tarmac, emblazoned with the colors of his nation's flag.

Two days earlier similar (larger) scenes played out in the capital, Harare. Lukashenko had arrived bearing promises of tractors and "sewing technology."

The former Soviet nation, like its ally Russia, is in need of friends. Zimbabwe as well as Burkina Faso and Central African Republic, where Russia recently made diplomatic advances, are isolated internationally.

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in January 2019. Photographer: Sergei Chirokov/AFP/Getty Images

In Burkina Faso, Russia looks set to supplant France as the dominant foreign power after the African nation's military government demanded the withdrawal of a 400-strong French-troop deployment. Russia also struck a deal with CAR and neighboring Sudan and Chad to fight rebels in a gold-rich zone. 

Burkina Faso, like fellow Russian ally Mali, has been isolated within West Africa after coups and their new military leaders began to turn their backs on traditional friends. CAR is on the verge of being a failed state.

Zimbabwe's state media gave blanket coverage to the visit in a bid to convey the impression the country enjoys normal diplomatic relations with an important trade partner. 

In reality, Belarus's trade with Zimbabwe is inconsequential as is Russia's with Burkina Faso and CAR.

Agricultural equipment and sewing machines are welcome but will do little to revive a moribund economy that needs assistance with the $13 billion in external debt it cannot pay and billion dollar investments to kickstart its mining industry. Similarly, supplying mercenaries in west and central Africa is unlikely to defeat jihadists and rebels. 

Belarus and Russia, their economies the target of sanctions imposed because of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, have little to offer beyond symbolism.

— By Antony Sguazzin

News & Opinion

Cabinet Changes | South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is considering changes to his cabinet as public anger mounts over power outages and shoddy government services, with his deputy David Mabuza among those in danger of losing their jobs. Mabuza, who was replaced as the governing African National Congress's deputy leader by Paul Mashatile in December, has offered to resign.

Ramaphosa. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg

Tax Bill | Ghana is asking some of the nation's largest companies to pay millions of dollars in back taxes as the cash-strapped government scrambles to raise money and finalize a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Gold Fields and Kosmos Energy have been told they owe back taxes, as have Tullow Oil and Africa's largest wireless carrier MTN Group. All of the companies dispute the government's claims.

Naira Deadline | Nigeria's central bank extended a deadline for the expiration of higher denomination naira notes to Feb. 10 (from Jan. 31) after long queues developed at banks and commercial activities almost came to a halt because of a shortage of the new currency. Africa's most-populous nation started issuing redesigned 200-, 500-, and 1,000-naira notes in mid-December to mop up excess cash sitting outside the banking system. 

Naira banknotes. Photographer: Damilola Onafuwa/Bloomberg

Zambia Debt | China wants multilateral development banks to offer debt relief to Zambia, something the World Bank has explicitly rejected and which will further complicate efforts to restructure the country's borrowing. Meanwhile, more African countries are expected to join Chad, Zambia, Ethiopia and Ghana in seeking to restructure debts under the Group-of-20 nations' so-called Common Framework, according to a United Nations panel.

Transit Corridor | Angola, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo agreed to establish a new agency that will oversee the development of a trade corridor to and from the Atlantic Ocean port of Lobito that has the potential to transform how the region's resources are shipped. The project is planned to help to move metals used to make electric vehicles and wind turbines from inland mines, and cut transport times from weeks to days.

Sporting Deal | South Africa's tourism agency gave preliminary approval to a sponsorship deal with English football club Tottenham Hotspur and government officials are being consulted on whether it should be finalized.  The Daily Maverick news website said the agreement could be worth about 1 billion rand ($60 million).  The presidency said it hasn't been briefed on the matter yet, and the proposed spending can't be justified.

Manchester City's Julian Alvarez vies with Tottenham Hotspur's striker Harry Kane during a Premier League football match. Photographer: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • Zimbabwe's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to 150% from 200% on expectations that inflation will continue to ease. Its annual price growth slowed for a fifth straight month in January to 230%.
  • Kenya kept its main interest rate unchanged at 8.75%. Its consumer prices rose an annual 9% in January, compared with 9.1% in December.
  • Uganda's annual inflation rate climbed to 10.4%  in January, compared with a 10.2% rise in December.

Ghana's central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 28% — less than forecast as it expects the government to finalize a deal with the IMF by the end of the first quarter, and help to stabilize the cedi and temper inflation. 

Coming Up

  • Feb. 6 Uganda interest-rate decision, Mozambique PMI for January
  • Feb. 7 South Africa reserves and central bank bond purchases, Mauritius reserves and inflation, and Seychelles inflation, all for January
  • Feb. 9 South Africa mining production and manufacturing for December
  • Feb. 10 Rwanda inflation for January 

Quote of the Week

"May the world remember the disasters committed over the centuries to the detriment of local populations and may it not forget this country or this continent," Pope Francis said in a transcript of a speech during his visit to Congo. "Let Africa be the protagonist of its destiny."

Pope Francis.

Last Word

About halfway into the journey, the caravan of quad bikes ground to an abrupt halt along the cracked and creviced salt pans of Botswana's Makgadikgadi Basin. "This is why you're here," guide, Super Sande, exclaimed, gesturing at the abject flatness of the Kalahari, a talc-white carpet sprouting not a single weed or thorn, writes Brandon Presser. They were the first to try a product newly created by award-winning safari operator Natural Selection — a four-day trek across Botswana's vast, uninhabited interior, connecting the islands of granite and thick-trunked trees that disrupt the miles of otherwise flat, lifeless terrain. Roughly the size of France or Texas but with only 3 million inhabitants, Botswana is one of the least densely populated nations on Earth. It's probably most famous for the flooding swamps of the Okavango Delta, which attracts hundreds of species of mammals and birds each year. With its government enacting a high-cost, low-volume approach to tourism, the country has positioned itself as a premium destination, and it's a favorite among safari-goers seeking hordes of animals instead of crowds of tourists.

Makgadikgadi Basin salt pans.

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