Monday, February 6, 2023

Don't call it a comeback

The Readout With Allegra Stratton

It's sunny and spring might look like she's springing (too early) but along comes a Bank of England monetary policy committee member to keep you level-headed. Analyzing the UK's woes up against US and European economies, the BOE's Catherine Mann — who I always find interesting — has said today the UK is suffering the "worst of all worlds." For her, this is because of Brexit. 

The cost of living crisis is beginning to turn a corner in the US and EU, she said, but not yet in the UK. As Bloomberg's Lucy White starkly puts it: "Inflation in the UK is still at 10.5%...In the euro area, however, the rise in the cost of living has fallen back to 8.5% and in the US to 6.5%."

"Is there a turning point already visible in the data?" Mann asked. "For the US and the euro area, yes; for the UK, maybe stabilization." She also noted that only the UK has chosen "to unilaterally impose trade barriers on its closest trading partners" reducing labor supply. 

I am loathe to keep writing the sentence "which all heaps pressure on the March budget" but, am going to write it. 

Can the government channel some of the labor market support principles pioneered by Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor (when I worked for him)? Because I think we'd all like to improve on the "worst of all worlds."

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

Why now?

As today's edition of the Readout hits your inbox, Liz Truss's interview on Spectator TV has just dropped. (Which comes after yesterday's 4,000-word magnum opus detailing "many hours of reflection" and "soul searching" and a mini mea culpa about the not so mini budget.)

This afternoon, she has explained that she doesn't regret going for the job, doesn't want to be PM again, and is speaking out now because "there aren't enough people making the case, full stop" for the growth agenda. Impressively thick-skinned, infuriating or just plain daft? Up to you.

Liz Truss Photographer: Pool/Getty Images Europe

But. Well. Now? The UK is still feeling the reverberations of the Truss era. Elsewhere in her comments today, Bank of England policy maker Catherine Mann has also urged her fellow rate-setters to "stay the course" and continue hiking interest rates. A report from EY shows mortgage lending is expected to grow at its slowest rate in more than a decade. After today's wave of NHS strikes — with more planned for next week — health care workers are dealing with a cost of living squeeze made worse (though, of course, not started) by the interest rate hikes.

In an interview with Bloomberg Radio this morning, Truss's colleague Harriet Baldwin, the chair of the influential Treasury Select Committee, says Truss's tax cuts were an "unforced error." But interestingly she does agree that the OBR can be "quite linear" in the way it assesses the impact of tax cuts.

It seems unlikely that this marks the start of any meaningful comeback for Liz Truss. More likely, she is setting out her stall for the US lecture circuit. But it is still noteworthy. If Liz Truss has judged that now is the right time to criticize the government's high tax approach, you can be sure that there will be a number of Conservative MPs who agree. 

And what about the No. 10 she's criticizing? Probably a score draw. On the one hand, it's not helpful for the governing party to have the electorate reminded that one of their own spooked the markets. On the other hand, for those Tories angling for tax cuts in the March budget — it's a reminder, for those that need it, that you can't always get what you want.

Levelling up the military

Therese Raphael argues the need for a serious debate about what kind of military Britain needs and can afford, highlighting both budget and strategic questions. 

The UK has enjoyed a substantial peace dividend, not just since the Cold War ended, but really since World War II. There was no guns versus butter tradeoff to be made. That has now changed.

What you need to know tomorrow

Get ahead of the curve

Keeping the lights on. A power network company covering London and the southeast of England could be hit by strikes next month.

Penalties? Manchester City Football Club is facing an investigation into its finances by England's Premier League.

Big Short. Steve Eisman who famously bet against subprime mortgages right before the global financial crisis sees a new paradigm unfolding in markets. 

Job cuts. Dell will be eliminating about 6,650 roles as it faces plummeting demand for personal computers.

ChatGPT. A survey revealed that most respondents, predominantly in the financial sector, didn't view their own jobs as being at risk of an immediate takeover by artificial intelligence. 

The big number 

32
Beyoncé has  broken the record for the most number of Grammys won by any artist across her career.

The Big Take

One key story, every weekday

The Arnault family, from left to right: Alexandre, Frederic, Jean, Helene Mercier, Bernard, Delphine and Antoine. Photographer: Lewis Joly/JDD/SIPA

From the Murdochs to the Kochs and Ambanis, one thing is clear: Succession planning is a fraught exercise. But through a series of moves over the past year, many of which have escaped public attention, Bernard Arnault, the world's richest man, has laid the groundwork he hopes will prevent such an outcome for his own family empire. 

Read The Big Take

Allegra Stratton worked for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter.

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