Thursday, February 2, 2023

Brussels Edition: Slow road

The EU is promising more assistance to Ukraine, but the bloc won't be as forthcoming on speeding up Kyiv's membership application

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The EU is promising more weapons, training and financial assistance to Ukraine, but the bloc won't be as forthcoming on speeding up Kyiv's membership application — despite a push from some members to demonstrate progress. After an intense of day diplomacy with Ursula von der Leyen and her large delegation of commissioners visiting Kyiv, today's EU-Ukraine summit will focus on making sure Volodymyr Zelenskiy delivers on the accession conditions. Von der Leyen praised Kyiv's efforts on corruption so far, but Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn said accession is more a marathon than a sprint. Overshadowing it all, a Russian offensive in the east appears imminent, even as Ukraine tries to accumulate enough weapons to mount its own push. 

Lyubov Pronina

What's Happening

Fuel Crunch | Europe's looming ban on almost all Russian fuel is sparking a scramble for alternatives, not least of which from the Middle East. Three new refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman that could go a long way to helping Europe replace 600,000 barrels a day of Russian diesel have faced numerous delays. None of them is yet at full capacity.

Brexit Leeway | The UK hinted it's willing to allow the EU Court of Justice to retain some sort of role in Northern Ireland, suggesting a compromise on the most difficult issue in its long-running post-Brexit dispute with the EU.  Any potential fudge would be a climbdown from the UK's previous position, which was to scrap the ECJ in its entirety. 

Last Hawk | The ECB was late to the global interest-rate hiking party, but it's trying to convince everyone that it will also be one of the last to leave. Its US and UK counterparts are signaling waning aggression after drastic monetary tightening, but euro-zone officials insist their own onslaught against inflation isn't about to let up.

Crypto Constraints | Lithuania, which saw registrations of crypto companies soar almost fivefold last year, is reining in the growth of digital-asset service providers to address transparency issues and money-laundering risks. The Registry Office in Vilnius released a list of 206 crypto companies yesterday that pass a set of stricter regulatory requirements imposed last November, narrowing down a list of 850 firms.

Eyeing NATO | Sweden's government proposed a new law to ban activities that support terror organizations, as its bid to join NATO has stalled over Turkish objections. The law, which could give the Nordic nation a new tool to counter Turkish claims it doesn't do enough to combat terror, is set to enter into force on June 1 — just after the Turkish elections.

In Case You Missed It

Balkan Chaos | The Serbian parliament devolved into chaos yesterday as President Aleksandar Vucic urged lawmakers to stay in the EU fold even as the bloc demands "painful" concessions on Kosovo. The spectacle of suited legislators scuffling, with banners reading "No to Capitulation" and "Treason," laid bare the resistance he'll face over any deal on Kosovo.

Oslo's Help | Norway plans to use its $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund to pay for a planned long-term aid program to Ukraine, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said. After reaping the benefits from a surge in oil and gas revenues following Russia's war, the Nordic nation will finance a package of military and civilian assistance.

Slovakia Concerns | Senior European diplomats raised concerns over Slovakia's opposition after meeting former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who is seeking a return to power in an early election this September. Fico, who leads the opposition Smer party, has vowed to halt weapons deliveries to Ukraine and made headlines with strident anti-EU rhetoric.  

Platform Work | The European Parliament passed a proposal yesterday that would effectively make any Uber driver or Deliveroo delivery worker an employee. The plan will soon face difficult negotiations with EU countries, while industry lobbying groups decried the proposal, saying it "would undermine legal self-employment as well as decades of precedence in national employment law."

Lifting Immunity | Two more European lawmakers were stripped of their immunity from prosecution in the latest escalation of the Qatar bribery scandal that's sparked a crackdown on corruption. The vote follows probes and arrests of current and former politicians, including the parliament's ex-vice president Eva Kaili.

Chart of the Day

Brexit's economic damage is happening sooner than feared, the Bank of England warned. The central bank said the UK economy is being hindered by a sharper slump in trade with the EU than implied by official statistics and a "very subdued" business investment. Since the UK's new trading relationship with the EU began in 2021, official data shows a 7% fall in trade. But the BOE's adjusted figure points to a 14% slump. The bank also sees little prospect of a turnaround in business investment levels since Brexit, predicting declines of almost 6% this year and next.

Today's Agenda

  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel attend the EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv
  • Energy commissioner Kadri Simson attends Ministerial Meeting of Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council in Baku

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