Russia's invasion of Ukraine is driving some of its oldest ex-Soviet friends to look for ways to cut dependence on a weakened and increasingly unpredictable regional power. That wasn't the plan when President Vladimir Putin launched his "special military operation" almost a year ago. A few days of military shock and awe to subdue the second-largest republic of the former Soviet Union were supposed to decisively re-assert Moscow's dominance over other neighboring states that, until the 1991 collapse of the communist superpower, had fallen squarely under the Kremlin's control. Key reading: The strategy backfired most clearly in Ukraine itself, which is now a candidate to join the European Union, deeply entwined with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and united as never before by Russian aggression. But there are signs of unintended consequences in the Caucasus and central Asia, too, regions where Russia has wielded great influence for decades. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Moscow-centric NATO equivalent, is looking damaged. Turkey appears the main beneficiary. Earlier this month, Armenia said it wouldn't host planned CSTO exercises, infuriated by Russia's failure to intervene on its behalf in a long-running territorial dispute with Azerbaijan. It turned to the EU for help instead. Azerbaijan is deepening ties with Turkey and looking to beef up energy exports to Europe. Kazakhstan, a vast petro-state that shares a 7,644-km (4,750-mile) border with Russia, is expanding oil export routes across the Caucasus and Turkey. All this despite the fact that these nations are benefiting from a wartime surge in transit trade with the much larger Russian economy as it labors under the impact of international sanctions. As Kazakh businessman Beibit Apsenbetov put it: "What to do when your neighbor is a drunkard and rowdy, and you can't move out?" — Marc Champion |
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