Monday, January 30, 2023

The economists have failed us

Plus: Putin kills his golden goose.

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Today's Agenda

What to expect when you're expecting. Source:  Heather Joelle Boneparth via Twitter

I'm Addicted to Berries AMA

We talk a lot about the looming population collapse that will soon befall US cities, and the need for millennials to lighten up and have more children. But nobody mentions the role berries play in this crisis. How are families expected to pop out two, three, or four kids when the price of strawberries has nearly doubled in two decades? It's no wonder one-and-done parenting is on the rise:

"They won't really eat the 15-cent bananas or the $3 bag of apples. They want berries. But I can't keep up. I can't afford their berry habit," Lindsay Gentry recently lamented on TikTok. "My son will not be going to college because we've spent his savings on strawberries," a viewer replied. "When my son was two he ate 176 blueberries in one sitting. We bought blueberry bushes that year," another admitted.

Although the bougie taste of toddlers is a trivial problem compared to, say, childcare, it's reflective of a larger issue: Raising a child in America is increasingly bound to break the bank. "Ohhh, you'll figure it out," is no longer sound advice for new parents, as Erin Lowry has written. It takes an estimated $300,000 for a middle-class family to raise a child to 18. Seriously: You can buy six Tesla Model 3s … or have a kid.

The US government's inability to invest a single crumb in parents and their well-being makes matters infinitely worse. Our lack of a national paid family leave program is a disgrace, Kathryn A. Edwards writes. Chances are, we'll have to wait until 2035 to see any real change, leaving American mothers less healthy and less wealthy, with zero hope of feeding their children's berry addiction:

Fruit costs are only part of a broader inflation problem that has been wreaking havoc on family finances. Outdated economic analysis is largely to blame, argue Philip Cornell and Eugene A. Ludwig. At the start of the pandemic, prices for everything from toilet paper to bacon went bonkers. "SUppLy cHAiN sHoCKs," economists said, noting "WaGeS aRE StAbLE." With their myopic focus on wages, policymakers made the mistake of shrugging off inflation for too long. Now, three years on, people are paying $1 for a single egg and cartons of raspberries need rationing. The 64% of US consumers living paycheck-to-paycheck are proof economists have failed the middle class. Read the whole thing.

Avoiding Toxic People 101

The oldest woman in the world recently said her secret to living 115 years is "avoiding toxic people." Russia's oil and gas barons could have used that advice, because President Vladimir Putin undoubtedly holds first place on the "10 Toxic People You Should Avoid At All Costs" listicle.

It took 50 years and gazillions of dollars for Russia to build its complex maze of gas pipelines, Julian Lee writes. And Putin managed to destroy it in under 50 weeks, just like that:

Before Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine, Europe's energy market was tethered to Moscow. Not anymore. The resulting economic turmoil will surely haunt Russians for generations to come. Russia has tried to counter this by having its hobbled oil tankers make some weird pit stops to keep oil flows close to prewar levels, Javier Blas writes, but at steep discounts.

When tanks from Germany and the US arrive in Ukraine, Pankaj Mishra warns, Putin's behavior will likely grow more reckless, throwing Ukraine into another cycle of needless violence and raising the risk of a broader conflict. But that's the thing about toxic people: They often leave you with no good options. 

Bonus Oil Reading: Big Oil's stock-buyback bonanza is drawing unwanted attention to the practice. — Lionel Laurent

America Has a Police Problem

Children nowadays grow up watching anthropomorphized police dogs rescue missing animals from trees. What these shows fail to mention is that these small-town heroes are also fatally shooting nearly three people every single day, by Frank Wilkinson's calculations. America's police force has been a perpetual violence machine for centuries, and more often than not its victims are Black. The fatal beating of 29-year-old Tyre Nichols is merely the latest act in a sadistic cycle that counteracts whatever law and order these officers are supposed to uphold.

Body-worn cameras were supposed to keep cops in line, Stephen Carter notes. But instead of being a preventative, they're now routinely evidence in murder trials. Unless we hold Memphis and other cities overrun with police brutality accountable, the violence will perpetuate.

Bonus Gun Violence Reading: Can sheriffs really opt out of enforcing gun laws? — Noah Feldman

Telltale Chart

TikTok's algorithm is kind of like T.J. Maxx. You walk in needing a bathing suit and you walk out with a bikini, plus an electric Himalayan salt grinder, a wool scarf, an overnight lip mask and a tube of foot cream. In other words: It's scary good at selling you things you absolutely don't need. Leticia Miranda writes Amazon's "catalog-style" website is struggling to compete with the short-form video platform that routinely sells out Hailey Bieber's peptide lip treatment. Soon, this chart could look very different:

Amazon might be forgiven for hoping Congress chases TikTok out of the US. But Bloomberg's editorial board argues banning the wildly popular app would solve nothing. A better idea would be to win concessions from China on privacy and data security.

Further Reading

Gautam Adani's 413-page novel rebuttal to Hindenburg isn't going down too well with investors— Andy Mukherjee

Toyota's new CEO is a good look. — Anjani Trivedi

The Colorado River is drying up fast and needs a rescue plan, stat. — Mark Gongloff

Everyone wants to ski in Japan  except the locals— Gearoid Reidy

Please don't start binge-drinking right after you wrap up Dry January— Lisa Jarvis

If you've just been laid off, here's how to protect your money— Alexis Leondis

ICYMI

The original Wednesday Addams passed away.

There's a typo in the new Long Island Rail Road terminal.

The pandemic might be over soon.

Vancouver wants to decriminalize hard drugs.

Kickers

Jesus has a multi-million-dollar Super Bowl ad.

NASA is going to visit the $10 quintillion asteroid.

Marie Kondo is done being neat.

The Eagles vs. the Chiefs is a sibling rivalry.

Source:  Trung Phan via Twitter

Notes:  Please send $10 quintillion and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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