| Good morning. Five-day strikes by UK union workers, consensus view among Wall Street's bigwigs and the world may just avoid a natural gas crisis. Here's what people are talking about. British rail workers will walk off the job much of this week, paralyzing transport and adding to the troubles piling up for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government. Union workers will strike for five days starting Wednesday, snarling the usual return to work following the holidays and interrupting January sales that are crucial for retailers. The protests stem from growing anger over the tightest cost-of-living squeeze in memory. Sunak's response has been to hold the line against what he sees as inflation-busting pay raises. It may be one of the most anticipated recessions of all time, but that doesn't mean it won't hurt. To kickstart the new year, Bloomberg News has gathered more than 500 calls from Wall Street's army of strategists to paint the investing landscape ahead. And upbeat forecasts are hard to find, threatening fresh pain for investors who've just endured the great crash of 2022. As the Federal Reserve ramps up its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, the consensus view is that a recession, albeit mild, will hit both sides of the Atlantic with a high bar for any dovish policy pivot, even if inflation has peaked.  | A warmer-than-expected start to winter across large parts of the world is rapidly easing fears of a natural gas crisis that had been predicted to trigger outages and add to pressure on power bills. Forecasts point to temperatures above seasonal norms for most of Europe in the next two weeks, while the US expects better weather through mid-January. It'll be more comfortable too across much of China — the world's biggest gas importer — over the next 10 days and Tokyo may see a spike around mid-January. Governments and utilities were bracing for gas shortages after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, disrupting energy deliveries and lifting global demand for LNG. Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than analysts expected last quarter, missing estimates despite taking the unusual step of offering hefty incentives in its two biggest markets. The company handed over 405,278 vehicles to customers in the last three months, short of the 420,760 average estimate compiled by Bloomberg. While the total was a quarterly record for Tesla, the company opened two new assembly plants last year and still came up short of its goal to expand deliveries by 50%. Tesla's quarterly delivery figures are widely seen as a barometer for EV demand generally, since the Austin, Texas-based company has led the charge for battery-powered cars. European shares are set to take a breather following Monday's surge as traders reassess the outlook for global equities. Expected data include manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the UK, as well as Spanish unemployment and German inflation. Darktrace is scheduled to report sales results. This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. The new year is off to a fast start for dollar-yen as it dipped below 130 for the firs time since June, but there will be more to come in the weeks ahead. Dollar-yen is likely to overshoot on the downside even though major changes to monetary policy may only arise when there is a new Bank of Japan chief in place from April. That won't prevent speculation on policy tightening, whether it comes through another yield curve tweak or a complete abandonment of the negative rates policy. This is a big contrast to last year, when traders pushed the yen lower for several months as the Federal Reserve rate increases were the only game in town as far as forex was concerned. There has been a huge range for dollar-yen since 2015 when Japan 10-year bond yields were last seen in the 0.5% area, with a midpoint around the 125 line. That suggests the yen will outperform in anticipation of a new broom at the top of the Bank of Japan.  Mark Cranfield is a Strategist in the Markets Live team for Bloomberg News, based in Singapore. Will the earnings season help or hurt the stocks? Is now a good time to buy value or growth? And if you had a million dollars, which market would you put it in? Share your view in our latest MLIV Pulse survey. | 
No comments:
Post a Comment