Thursday, December 1, 2022

Turning down the chaos

With Allegra Stratton.

It's a pretty quiet day — which The Readout wouldn't normally open with — except that I think that's what counts for political strategy at the moment. A "quiet day" will make the prime minister's team pretty pleased. Turning down the churn factor on the chaos is their number one aim.

HSBC's boss Noel Quinn says he thinks the UK has regained its economic credibility: "The confidence has come back."

Elsewhere, the pound is rallying so strongly today that, in the words of Bloomberg's David Goodman it's "getting serious" — it's around the strongest since June and briefly went through $1.23. "Just over two months ago, the currency was at a record low of $1.035 and some analysts were convinced it was only a matter of time until it hit parity." Indeed. 

Of course, there have been developments. Scheming has finally seen off the Scottish National Party's Westminster leader Ian Blackford, who today announced he was standing down. Behind-the-scenes party sources are briefing it's because of "generational issues" (gender issues and the handling of recent sexual harassment allegations). But they may also want fresh legs in the battle to turn the next general election into Indyref2.

And while 12 Conservative MPs have also announced they are standing down (the deadline to tell constituencies their plans is Monday), today one makes news for doing the opposite. Boris Johnson will run again to be Tory MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip. It means the former PM intends to stay in parliament for most of the 2020s. 

Maybe today is not so quiet after all. 

Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here.

What just happened

The popularity contest of buying a house

Bloomberg today is mostly troubled by the UK housing market.

"Nationwide said the average cost of a home fell 1.4% in November — more than triple the estimated pace (economists expected a 0.4% drop) and the fastest since the height of the first Covid lockdown."

As reporter Liza Tetley puts it in a real marmalade dropper (or cereal bar) of a paragraph:

"The decline could be the start of a more protracted downturn, reflecting Britain's lurch into a recession and spiraling inflation that's caused the tightest cost of living squeeze in memory. The Bank of England has boosted its benchmark lending rate to 3% from near zero a year ago, meaning those who remortgage in the next year may see their payments double."

The 1.8 million UK households set to refinance in 2023 will shudder.

Some good news — the cost of a five-year fixed-rate mortgage fell below 6% last month for the first time in almost seven weeks, though the two-year fix remains above 6%. At that level a new two-year mortgage will cost about £10,000 more than one arranged last December. UK mortgage rates are predicted to stay near 5% until at least 2028.

Incredible numbers call for ingenious solutions — and as Charlie Wells reports, that includes houseboats:

"On land, higher mortgage rates are dampening demand for houses and flats. But on the River Thames, the vessels' lower costs, prime locations and relative energy efficiency are attracting new residents trying to eke out a bit of luxury even as inflation bites."

 Houseboats docked on the River Thames Photographer: Tom Skipp/Bloomberg

It's not all river-views and gently undulating waves — Alice Kantor recently reported that Londoners, kept out of buying property by surging mortgage rates, are fighting for property to rent. The number of prospective tenants has more than tripled from early 2021 levels:

"More than seven people are actively looking for every one property listed, SpareRoom data show, resulting in bidding wars and exorbitant landlord demands. Those who are lucky enough to find a flat will have to pay up: Average rents jumped 16% in October from a year earlier."

Estate agents tell Alice that six month's rent up front is not unusual and she's even found prospective renters asked for details about their personality. As one of them puts it, this is an unusual housing market: "Apparently it's a popularity contest."

Coordinated walkouts

The UK will be affected by strikes every day in the run up to Christmas, with trade union leaders increasing threats to coordinate industrial action and cause maximum disruption in their quest for higher wages.

Workers from the rail network, buses, postal service, health sector and schools are among those staging walkouts amid high inflation and government plans to rein in public spending.

Read more from Eamon Akil Farhat and Emily Ashton.

What you need to know tomorrow

Get ahead of the curve

Significant shiftRolex will begin issuing certificates of authenticity to authorized dealers selling its pre-owned watches.

From casual to luxuriousAfrican restaurants are now London's most exciting places to eat.

De-facto cyborg. Elon Musk's Neuralink startup aims to put its coin-sized implants into human brains within six months.

Bidding war over. High-street giant Next has bought UK clothing retailer Joules out of insolvency for £34 million.

Blown away. Rishi Sunak is full of the wrong kind of wind, Javier Blas writes for Bloomberg Opinion.

The big number 

£210
That's how much Brexit has added to food bills for the average UK household, according to research from the London School of Economics.

Britain's gambling nightmare

One key story, every weekday

Photographer: Liam Cobb

A relaxed approach to the dangers of gambling helped transform Britain into one of the world's biggest betting markets. Gavin Finch, Harry Wilson and Sam Dodge investigate the links between gambling companies and politicians and chart how a legal loophole from the pre-smartphone era allowed a multi-billion industry to take a grip on millions of lives.

Read The Big Take.

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Allegra on Twitter.

No comments:

Post a Comment

[Expiring Soon] How To Simplify Your Strategy And Amplify Your Results

You Can't Afford To Miss This Valuable Information! Hey Trader,  Before we go any further I need to...