Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Impasse at Christmas

Another day in strike-hit Britain, where this time it's ambulance workers on the picket lines, and accusations are flying between the govern

Another day in strike-hit Britain, where this time it's ambulance workers on the picket lines, and accusations are flying between the government and unions, with no end in sight. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's reluctance to make pay concessions to public sector workers was backed up today by data showing that government borrowing surged in November.

Ambulances parked up during strike action in Coventry, UK, on Dec. 21.Photographer: Darren Staples/Getty Images

The rising cost of servicing debt and subsidizing energy bills meant the budget deficit ballooned to £22 billion ($26.8 billion) — the highest monthly total since records began in 1993 and almost triple the level of a year ago. To add to those dour numbers, findings from the Center for European Reform showed that Brexit has left the UK economy 5.5% smaller than it would otherwise have been, and added to the squeeze on public services. 

I will leave the last word on strikes to my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Therese Raphael: "One way or another, the government needs a way out of the staring contest. People need a working health-care system and government exists to organize such functions in democracies. While striking workers may get less sympathy as the pain continues, people will lose patience with the government much faster." 

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

  • Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy will address US Congress in person in Washington with a plea for more aid.
  • Russian gas flows to Europe are unaffected after an explosion occurred at a pipeline that goes to Ukraine for further supplies to Europe.
  • The Scarlet Fever outbreak in the UK is far bigger than previously thought, with about 27,000 cases reported since mid-September.

Happiness is overrated

In the season for predictions, let's start with some good news. Confidence among UK firms rose at the fastest rate in 20 months, according to a new report, with businesses expecting a better festive period than last year and more optimism about the economy. The findings from Lloyds Bank stand in stark contrast to other industry surveys and official statistics in the UK.

But there is some echo to the sentiment globally, with dealmakers predicting more mergers and capital market activity as companies get used to operating in a world of rising interest rates and inflation. Sectors like energy and technology, facing different kinds of pains, could also see more consolidation as smaller companies go under. The same could be said of property firms — sample today's  warning from economists that UK house prices may tumble as much as 10% next year

In other news, UK population growth is already slowing down, with data out today showing that the nation of 67 million has been getting older over the past decade. And French lender Lyonnaise de Banque has become the first to lose its post-Brexit permit to operate in the country after failing to apply for a permanent authorization in time.

In the absence of festive news — and with another dose of gloom to close out this year, some European-inspired philosophy from my colleague Andreas Kluth may be in order:

"Here's the advice I'll try to follow, and not just during the upcoming holidays. First, ignore silly 'happiness indices' and other claptrap. Second, strange as it sounds, don't feel bad if you're not happy. Third, remember that, like Aeneas, you have more important things to do in this world, so stay focused on those. And fourth, keep watching your own mind, lest it gallop off too wildly in the wrong directions." 

The Readout is taking a Christmas and New Year break. We'll be back on Jan. 3. 

UK House prices set to drop 10% in 2023

Source: Nationwide, Bloomberg EconomicsNote: Calculations based on 4Q averages

Soaring interest rates and a deepening recession could weigh down a market that thrived through the pandemic, according to economists and property market forecasters.

Falling house prices and higher borrowing costs will drain more money from household balance sheets, making many homeowners feel poorer and perhaps more cautious about spending. 

What you need to know tomorrow

Get ahead of the curve

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London callingThe capital is Rightmove's most searched for location in 2022 as a resurgence of people are looking to buy property there.

Too mean for green? Why electricity in the UK won't be cheaper than gas anytime soon.

Covid surge. Months after Shanghai endured a brutal lockdown to stop the spread of Covid, the virus is spreading unchecked through the population and overwhelming hospitals.

What they said

"The Taliban have just definitively set back their objective of being accepted by the international community."
Antony Blinken
US Secretary of State
Reacting to the announcement from the Taliban denying women in Afghanistan the right to a university education.

JP Morgan's CEO is more crucial than ever 

One key story, every weekday

Jamie Dimon  Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg Photographer: Muller, Sarah

JPMorgan's shares have more than tripled since Dimon took over at the end of 2005. Among top competitors, only Goldman Sachs comes close, more than doubling. He has repeatedly jolted markets by publicly calling out storm clouds over the economic landscape that he's said could become a "hurricane." 

After 17 years, Dimon keeps brushing off the big question: Who will lead the House of Dimon after Dimon?

Read The Big Take

Please send thoughts, tips and feedback to readout@bloomberg.net. You can follow Ruth on Twitter.

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