Saturday, December 31, 2022

Here come the electric SUVs

The EV road ahead

By Kyle Stock

The EV road ahead

In the evolution of the electric vehicle, 2022 will be remembered for its megafauna: Massive electric trucks finally roamed the land. Next year, however, should bring some subspecies, including slightly smaller options and a precious few with modest price tags. If you're in the market for a car — or just prepping for champagne small-talk — here are four 2023 trends to keep in mind.

You'll see more EVs at the supermarket. 
Somewhere around 20 all-new electric vehicle models are expected to launch in the US over the next 12 months, roughly the same amount as debuted this year. Critically, however, many of them are aimed at a sweet spot in the American market, which is to say good for carrying cargo and families, and not extremely expensive. 

Days ago, Nissan's long-awaited Ariya finally rolled into dealerships with a starting price of $43,190. A few months from now, Chevrolet says it will add its Blazer EV at just shy of $45,000, followed by the smaller, cheaper Equinox EV. Kia's EV9, a bonafide three-row, will probably land in somewhat affordable territory as well. European drivers can expect many of the same options, plus a few that are strictly Continental, like the Jeep Avenger, a stubby SUV that stands as the brand's first all-electric offering. 

The $100,000+ market isn't slowing down. 
Plenty of swankier SUVs are in the offing in 2023, including a version of GMC's Hummer EV, with a price tag squarely in six-figure territory; the first electric Lexus, dubbed RZ; an "Electrified" version of Hyundai's GV70; two more small crossover-type things from Polestar, named simply 3 and 4; and at the top of the luxury pyramid, the Mercedes EQE and EQS. There's even talk of a large electric Volvo. 

Manufacturing issues will barely ease up. 
Those on the hunt for an electric SUV will see their choices double in 2023. But choosing a new whip and actually buying a new whip will continue to be very different things. Supplies will stay tight, prices will stay elevated and legacy automakers will still be eager to sell gas vehicles while they spool up almost the entire EV market.

Startups, meanwhile, are still figuring out how to actually build an electric car at scale. Rivian only made about 25,000 vehicles this year, though it has more than four times that many orders on its books. Lucid Group is aiming for just 6,000 to 7,000 EVs in 2022, after halving its production goals late in the summer.

Making money on EVs won't get easier. 
While the suits in Detroit, Seoul, Stuttgart and Tokyo may finally get the computer chips they need, the unit economics on electric vehicles are still crummy. Lithium-ion battery prices increased in 2022 for the first time on record, a 7% bump. And some of the biggest brains in the business worry that it will take years for the battery supply chain to catch up.

That's why the best strategy for auto executives may be to stick with the simple bait-and-switch: Get drivers hyped to go electric with low base prices, while predominantly stamping out far more expensive, higher-trim models. Though if the economy stays on shaky ground and interest rates continue to climb, relying on indefinite demand may prove unwise. 

Read and share the full version of this story.

Like getting the Green Daily? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to breaking news on climate and energy, data-driven reporting and graphics and Bloomberg Green magazine. 

Five good questions

  1. What do I need to know before I buy a heat pump? 

  2. Do menu climate labels turn people off meat?

  3. What is an "atmospheric river," exactly?

  4. Can I turn my bicycle into an e-bike? 

  5. Where does recycled Amazon packaging really end up?

Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg

Worth your time

The US states hit hardest by blackouts in last week's winter storm have something in common: They all significantly increased reliance on heating homes with electricity over the past decade. That trend played out dramatically on Dec. 23 and Dec. 24: Temperatures fell to 10F (-12C), millions of people cranked up the heat, natural gas flows plummeted as equipment froze, and utilities were forced to institute rolling blackouts when demand overwhelmed the system

The Nashville skyline on December 23, 2022, after winter storm Elliot moved through the region. Photographer: Seth Harold/AFP

Readers really liked 

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

No comments:

Post a Comment