7 Daring Crypto Predictions You Won't Find Anywhere Else
Byron Gilliam will be back next week. Editor-in-Chief Jon Rice is filling in today.
Prognostication is both an immensely-satisfying mouthword, and a discipline in which financial forecasters are generally outperformed by oversized squirrels.
(Actually, Punxsutawney Phil, the weather-predicting groundhog in question, is only right 39% of the time. You gotta love the internet.)
As bad as he may be at offering meteorological advice, I'm sure I can do a worse job on my predictions for the crypto sector in 2023.
Since I'm sure that none of our generous (and good-looking!) readers would drudge up my myriad failures this time next year to berate me with my own prophetic performance, I'll plow on regardless.
And just for fun, I'll also predict the market's reaction to each piece of news, measured by subsequent one-week performance of total crypto market capitalization… and ancillary effects.
Tether provides proof that it is fully-backed by liquid assets
The wolves have had it in for Tether for years, not least because everything about it seems super shady — that one guy who speaks to the media, the multiple 'attestations' that never serve to quell speculation about its liquidity, Brock Pierce in general.
So it will come as a shock when Tether finally produces a fully-transparent audit that proves it actually holds liquid assets that back every tether, dollar for dollar.
Market Reaction: +8.44% (Winklevii and Jeremy Allaire cry into beer, Bitfinex'ed Twitter account goes dark, Pierce announces second run for President.)
Do Kwon is arrested
Although he's categorically *not* on the run, or evading authorities in any way, Do Kwon has a strange and somewhat morbid habit of turning up on Twitter to blame other people for his numerous mistakes and outrages. This year he'll argue his case in an actual court, rather than the court of public opinion or in softball "interviews".
I'm quietly confident in predicting that he'll have to deploy more lawyers.
Market Reaction: +1.72% (Smug winks exchanged between Twitter influencers, South Korean imports of Serbian goods experience an unexplained bump, 'lads' remain 'steady'.)
The US Congress announces clear and thoughtful rules on token economies
No, they won't. But imagine if they did!
Imagine a series of regulations that defined clearly how organizations launching token-based economies could remain in compliance with the law.
Imagine the SEC even acknowledging that such economies are actually fundamental to the future of value exchange; that they might have uses that are non-speculative; or that they might confer voting rights to the holders of those tokens. Imagine that digital art sold on a secondary market didn't expose creators and collectors to onerous and outdated… ah, never mind. Maybe in 2024.
Market Reaction: +38.22% (Grown traders crying tears of joy in the streets of Caribbean tax havens, baby boom 9 months later, increased sales of Lamborghinis in Palo Alto.)
SEC and Ripple settle: XRP is a security
Or it won't be. Or it might be. Or it is, but Brad and Chris can keep the money anyway.
There's a more interesting question anyway: Whether XRP will find a real use case in 2023. Will it be international remittances? Will it be NFTs? Will it be online gaming?
Who knows? Who cares? So long as this never-ending saga between Ripple and the SEC comes to a close sometime this year, and so long as that result is announced before 5pm on a Friday — when this editor is strongly in need of libations at the nearest public house — we have but one question about XRP at this point.
Will Ripple get to continue releasing billions of XRP from escrow to provide 'predictable liquidity' to the token? Or is that particular sca… maneuver… going to be illegal?
Market Reaction: -14.33% (Jed McCaleb completely unaffected as his billions are now in dollars, XRP Army deserts and ill-advisedly heads over to Cardano, Bill Clinton's speaking engagement calendar gets noticeably lighter.)
Wells Fargo announces it's investing all client funds in HEX
Some things won't change much in 2023, and Wells Fargo's well-deserved reputation as a staunch defender of the personal finances of its customers will only be enhanced this year, as it invests the contents of your checking account into a "high-interest blockchain certificate of deposit."
This is in no way A Bad Thing That Could Possibly Go Wrong.
Market Reaction: -100% (Collapse of civilization, all human wealth eliminated, Richard Heart inexplicably now King of The Cockroaches.)
Technology and fairness almost win, for once
A layer-one blockchain will emerge that provides free accounts, free transactions, and that will not even require the user to hold a token. It will be immune to hard forks, and developers will be able to build on it in almost any programming language.
And despite being egalitarian, fair-launched, technically-advanced, completely decentralized, and accessible to all, nobody will notice because the Usual Suspects didn't lock up a sweetheart token deal that allows them to use retail investors as exit liquidity.
This is an easy prediction, of course. It already exists. DYOR.
Market Reaction: 0.00% (If a tree falls in a forest, and a16z has no vested interest… does it affect the price of timber futures?)
Blockworks hires more Breaking News reporters, US-based editor
Oh, for shame! I did it! I really did it! I got you to read all the way down here and then pitched you on a job. I know, I'm a bad person.
But… What if you're a great journalist or editor who likes the idea of working with one of the fastest-growing financial media brands in the world?
What if you would love to cover the biggest news in crypto for a highly-educated and engaged audience? (Did I mention, they're all good-looking too?)
What if you're pretty excited about a generous salary package, four weeks of paid vacation, comprehensive health insurance and working with a stable, revenue-generating, growth-oriented company?
Then you'll probably want to find out more here…
…And then send a cover letter and link to your online resume to jon@blockworks.co (noting that, like most journalists in crypto, I won't open attachments).
I feel better about next year already.
Happy New Year, fellow prognosticators.
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