Wednesday, December 21, 2022

5 things to start your day

Good morning. FTX guilty pleas, Zelenskiy addresses US Congress and more pain from Brexit. Here's what people are talking about.Two top asso

Good morning. FTX guilty pleas, Zelenskiy addresses US Congress and more pain from Brexit. Here's what people are talking about.

FTX Pleas

Two top associates of disgraced crypto executive Sam Bankman-Fried have pleaded guilty to criminal charges and are cooperating with US prosecutors leading the investigation into FTX's collapse. The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York Damian Williams said in a statement on Wednesday night that Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang had been charged "in connection with their roles in the frauds that contributed to FTX's collapse." SBF left the Bahamas for the US late Wednesday local time.

Zelenskiy Trip

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pressed the US Congress for tanks, planes and other weapons to help repel Russia's invasion, portraying the war as a battle of democracy against tyranny as he looked to win support from skeptical Republican lawmakers. In his first trip abroad since President Vladimir Putin's forces invaded, Zelenskiy told a joint meeting of Congress that US support had been crucial so far and predicted the year ahead would turn the tide in the war.

Exit Wounds

Brexit has damaged the ability of UK companies to compete in the European Union, with businesses "banging their heads against a brick wall," according to a survey from the British Chambers of Commerce. The report published Wednesday found that more than three-quarters of firms said a deal struck two years ago to ease trade with the EU was not helping them increase sales or expand their businesses. 

Trump Taxes

Former President Donald Trump's personal and business financial losses have shielded him from paying much income tax since 2015, according to documents made public by the House Ways and Means Committee. The Democratic-controlled House panel voted on party lines to release six years' worth of Trump's personal and business tax forms late Tuesday. Those documents will be released in the coming days, but a summary report gives an initial look into the income, or lack thereof, he reported and the taxes he paid.

Coming up

European stock futures indicate gains for region-wide benchmarks after US shares rose sharply on strong consumer confidence data and a handful of rosy earnings reports. Asian equities also traded broadly higher. Economic data releases ahead include UK gross domestic product and the current account balance for the third quarter. Sweden will release producer purchasing and retail sales data, while Norwegian unemployment figures will also be published. Hornbach Baumarkt, a German home improvement retailer, and Crypto Blockchain Industries are among the companies to report earnings.

Here's what we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Mark is interested in this morning

German 10-year bond yields are on course to rise above 3%, which would be in keeping with the cycles seen over the past two decades. The trend has been given extra momentum after this week's surprise tweaking of yield curve control by the Bank of Japan. While there hasn't been official word, bond traders may look upon the various central bank moves in December as a coordinated G-10 attempt to lift bond yields. Adding to the bearish case for European bonds is the participation of Japanese investors. French debt is their biggest holding, but if that is to be reduced as funds flow back to Japan, it is likely that German Bunds will also be under pressure. Indeed, should the BOJ tighten further in 2023, it wouldn't be outlandish for the European Central Bank deposit rate to reach 4%.

Mark Cranfield is a Strategist with Markets Live in Singapore.

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