Wednesday, December 21, 2022

5 Things to Start Your Day

Biden pledges "unwavering" support for Ukraine. Covid rips through Shanghai. Asian stocks set to rise. Here's what you need to know today.Pr

Biden pledges "unwavering" support for Ukraine. Covid rips through Shanghai. Asian stocks set to rise. Here's what you need to know today.

Strong Rapport

President Joe Biden promised Volodymyr Zelenskiy unwavering US support as Ukraine's effort to beat back Russia's invasion nears its 11th month. During a trip to the White House — his first time out of Ukraine since Moscow's forces invaded — Zelenskiy told Biden that Ukraine controls the situation in the war thanks to US support, but warned that "the war is not over." Biden's administration on Wednesday announced $1.85 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine, including a Patriot missile battery. Here's how the Ukrainian leader made his high security visit to Washington.

New Variant?

The tsunami of Covid-19 that's taking hold across China is spurring concern that a dangerous new variant could emerge for the first time in more than a year. Medical experts and political leaders in the US and elsewhere fear another round of disease caused by the mutating virus could be unleashed. Daniel Lucey, a fellow at the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said: "It could be more contagious, more deadly, or evade drugs, vaccines and detection from existing diagnostics."  Meanwhile, the country's virus surge is now hitting Shanghai, and people are turning to the black market for Covid drugs.

Into Reverse

A gauge of Asian equities looks poised to snap five days of declines after US shares rallied on improved consumer confidence and better-than-expected earnings. Stock futures for Hong Kong and Japan climbed, as did an index of US-listed Chinese shares, buoyed by gains of 1.5% in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Treasuries were mixed as fallout from the Bank of Japan's surprise policy shift began to ebb.

Struggle for Seats

The jet era that globalized air travel for half a century was brought to an abrupt halt with Covid. Now, planes are back in the skies but flying's proliferation is in reverse: Fewer aircraft are plying a smaller network and fares are up. It's more expensive to fly almost anywhere overseas. And while some markets such as the US are just about back to pre-virus capacity, swathes of Asia and Europe are wallowing more than one-quarter below 2019 levels. There's so much appetite to travel that airlines have been able to more than double fares on some routes.

Classic Split

Putting 60% of a portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds is supposed to hedge against both assets dropping simultaneously. But it didn't pan out that way in 2022. Inflation and rising interest rates whacked both asset classes, and a Bloomberg index tracking a 60/40 mix is down about 17% for the year. But some veteran investors say the classic approach to investing still makes long-term sense, and that bonds are positioned to regain their status as a good counterweight to stocks. So, does a 60/40 portfolio still make sense? Find out here.

What we've been reading

    And finally, here's what Garfield's interested in this morning

    The yen calmed down Wednesday but there remains strong anticipation that the impact from the Bank of Japan's surprise policy tweak will play out for some time to come. As Japan's yields rise they will become more and more attractive for the country's investors who stashed more than $3 trillion in overseas stocks and bonds. Swap yields, more nimble than those on bonds given the BOJ's stockpiling of more than half the debt market, are charging toward 1% in the 10-year tenor.

    With hedging costs remaining high and even more incentive to take out protection against moves in the yen, we could see a virtuous circle for the yen as money floods back in to the country and carry trades get unwound with both interest rates and the currency dynamics working against them.

    Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

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